PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: A year of noise and choices lies ahead

Dec 21, 2021

SA has a habit of slowing down into major political events. Time seems to almost stand still. We saw it this past year with the municipal elections.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: A year of noise and choices lies ahead

Dec 21, 2021

SA has a habit of slowing down into major political events. Time seems to almost stand still. We saw it this past year with the municipal elections.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Complexity allergy stops SA from grabbing problems by the scruff of the neck

Sep 6, 2021

No-one says that complexity is not hard to deal with, but investors are tired of the roundabout.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Cabinet reshuffle myths, folklore and reality

Aug 10, 2021

Looking back at the cabinet reshuffle, all we see is a range of sub-par ministers who’ve been shuffled from one portfolio to another due to a lack of better options. 

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Here’s how foreign investors, markets are reacting to the unrest in SA

Jul 15, 2021

In discussing how foreign investors and markets are reacting to the unrest in South Africa, Peter Attard Montalto tells CNBC Africa that the unrest and arson do not necessarily mean that foreign...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Maybe it’s time for a grown-up conversations about hard truths

Jul 12, 2021

Before the distraction of the 2022 ANC elective conference, there is a key window from now to the end of the year for these conversations to happen.

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STUART THEOBALD: Impasse shows security of land rights hinges on accessibility and justice

Jul 5, 2021

Standoff between ANC and EFF is due to people feeling they cannot accrue tangible economic benefits.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Reform is not a single event but a series of shifts

Jun 28, 2021

Is the government able to manage a process that demands more and more changes as it unfolds?

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STUART THEOBALD: SAA deal is the next best for all parties

Jun 21, 2021

That is, if the deal — which was hammered out behind closed doors — can fly at all.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Recovery needs to be fast and vast enough to support Big safety nets

May 17, 2021

South Africa's recovery needs to be fast and vast enough to support Big safety nets.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Holding on to central control of energy holds us all back

May 3, 2021

A choice on which infrastructure rollout system works for the state has never really been made.

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Response to the Regulation 28 public consultation

Apr 19, 2021

Following National Treasury publishing the draft amendments to Regulation 28 of the Pension Funds Act for public comment, Intellidex submitted its response welcoming elements of proposed reforms...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: From water-use to energy, performative focus sidetracks from real issues

Apr 19, 2021

The list of distractions from what matters seems never-ending.

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POLITICAL WEEK AHEAD: ANC infighting is expected to dominate agenda

Apr 6, 2021

We do not see Ace Magashule standing aside voluntarily. We expect foresee him see out the full 30 days and then be suspended to get the maximum victim status, said says Intellidex’s Peter...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Our threadbare institutions need a redesign, not just patching

Apr 6, 2021

Our threadbare institutions need a redesign, not just patching.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Budget is already under pressure

Mar 15, 2021

Student protests are a live example of the politics of austerity in action — less than a month after the budget.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Even the Treasury will admit this was not an optimal budget

Mar 1, 2021

It has slightly lowered the dangers around debt and balanced the risks with a buffer against future shocks, but we didn’t get answers to fundamental […]

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STUART THEOBALD: Can we quit the grand visions and fix the problems?

Feb 8, 2021

The South African government is increasingly giving up on solving the problems and is resorting to promising grand new institutions.

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The case against a new state-owned bank

Feb 5, 2021

The problem with the idea of a state ba is that upon investigation you quickly realise that the problems that need to be solved can’t be solved that way.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Government should liberalise energy sector to allow private sector in

Jan 18, 2021

Amending Electricity Regulation Act could unlock rooftop self-generation investments and jobs.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Where is the new economic stimulus debate?

Dec 31, 2020

SA needs new ideas for fiscal stimulus and financial support through the second wave and beyond.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Labour problems and opportunities everywhere

Dec 21, 2020

A lot of misdirected conclusions have been drawn from the court judgment on the public sector wage bill

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STUART THEOBALD: ANC fails to use evidence in policymaking decisions

Dec 14, 2020

The lack of evidence-based thinking has also been prevalent in the economic response to the pandemic. Ultimately, evidence-based policy must be a culture more than a set of rules.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Trying to solve all problems at once risks missing the opportunities

Nov 9, 2020

One must target what is most important in a resource-constrained world and hope the rest will follow

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ANC just wanna have some fungibility

Nov 2, 2020

The Treasury is making the party leadership feel the pain of directing money to SAA from libraries and schools.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Mboweni has a tough task on his hands

Oct 26, 2020

With the MTBPS scheduled for 28 October, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni has a tough task on his hands.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Toxic brew of ANC decision-making poisons confidence

Sep 28, 2020

Scant insight into how government’s decision-making works is a problem that infects business and investor confidence. 

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: What is the point of a profoundly broken reform machine?

Aug 17, 2020

Cyril Ramaphosa’s legacy will be judged by his ability to make difficult and unpopular decisions.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Talk without action threatens to shove us over the fiscal cliff edge

Jul 19, 2020

This issue of talk vs action sounds almost comical, but is crucial for recovery.

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STUART THEOBALD: Inheritance tax proposal pokes a hornets’ nest

Jun 15, 2020

There are important moral and practical concerns that should guide the discussion on whether to disrupt multigenerational transfers of wealth.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: A starting gun has been fired, but to what end?

Jun 8, 2020

The tripartite alliance must do things differently if it is to triumph in a post-Covid reality.

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STUART THEOBALD: Great leadership is needed after the Covid-19 crisis

Jun 1, 2020

The fight over the future of economic policy is already brewing

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Paternalistic state wants everyone to zip it while it muddles along

May 11, 2020

The government’s dangerously paternalistic streak is showing its worst side during the lockdown and current policymaking.

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STUART THEOBALD: Fast response let down by economic blunders

May 4, 2020

My life is divided between the UK and SA. So I’ve seen the Covid-19 responses in both countries, and the comparisons are revealing.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: What lessons should we learn from the Covid-19 crisis?

Apr 13, 2020

After the health crisis forces in the government will be pulling in completely different directions.

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Coronavirus: cases and costs

Mar 25, 2020

The president’s response to the coronavirus has been solid while the Reserve Bank upgraded its response to bazooka-level; but the economy still faces severe contraction, says Peter Attard Montalto,...

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Covid-19 preparedness: Townships, downtowns and informal settlements

Mar 18, 2020

There is an urgent need to slow the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) in SA, irrespective of location. Urban areas likely to be hardest hit. Townships and informal settlements accommodate the...

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STUART THEOBALD: Politics is the stick in the wheel of shares

Mar 9, 2020

Unfortunately, politics is what share prices now depend on.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Backlash against Mboweni is based on misconception of his powers

Mar 2, 2020

Misconceptions overestimate and underestimate the finance minister’s powers

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SONA review: Acceleration of rhetoric towards implementation wall?

Feb 20, 2020

The 2020 state of the nation address (Sona) on February 13 scores highly for PR/rhetoric (an 8/10), actual policy is “ok” (a 6.5/10, being generous), but signs of any shifts towards actual...

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Old promises turned into new promises — with implementation detail and financing left to Mboweni’s Budget

Feb 17, 2020

The youth employment initiative announced at last week’s Sona will take 1% or R20bn of the 2021/21 national budget and it’s unclear where that money will come from apart from belt-tightening, says...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Will SA be going forward or just accelerating into a wall?

Feb 17, 2020

It is now or never for implementation, especially with the budget coming up next week and the ability to gazette change at any time. Some hard choices over how cadres are deployed in government may...

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Is Cosatu’s Eskom plan unworkable?

Feb 11, 2020

The GDPF, IDC and DBSA have finite balance sheets and have to manage their risk. Intellidex’s Stuart Theobald says drawing them in to bail out Eskom is dangerous. Catch the full interview with...

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Debating COSATU’s proposed plan to rescue Eskom

Feb 11, 2020

Intellidex chairperson Stuart Theobald weighs in on Cosatu’s proposal to rescue Eskom. Listen to the full conversation on The Eusebius McKaiser Show on 702.

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STUART THEOBALD: Cosatu’s Eskom bailout plan is unworkable and dangerous

Feb 11, 2020

Cosatu’s  Eskom proposal will spark contagion that spreads the financial problems of SOEs into government development financial institutions such as the GDPF, IDC and DBSA, […]

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STUART THEOBALD: Eviscerated public service ties Cyril Ramaphosa’s hands

Jan 27, 2020

Policy should focus on setting the rules for the private sector and letting it bring skills to the table, rather than trying to deliver all and sundry itself. He is running a ship that cannot attract...

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A great buzz, but SA lost in the mix with its ‘charity case’ stance

Jan 24, 2020

Intellidex’s head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto, attended the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London on 20 January. He conveys his thoughts on some […]

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Scrap the empty rhetoric and be a bit of a dictator

Jan 20, 2020

How many times can you say the same thing and still have people come along for the ride? When a process is mired in a lack of transparency can you say the opposite of what is actually happening?

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STUART THEOBALD: Don’t let petroleum bill prove that resource nationalism is a curse

Jan 13, 2020

The oil and natural gas industry provides an obvious opportunity to add positive economic momentum while it is desperately needed. The bill is now in a consultation process, providing an opportunity...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Will the adults please enter the energy war room and shed light on Eskom’s future

Dec 19, 2019

The public sector wage war and Eskom’s debilitating debt are key focuses in the coming year, yet the largest hurdles to be overcome are the […]

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Here’s our view on what to expect next year

Dec 13, 2019

We look forward to working vigorously with you next year to do that. The team at Intellidex wishes you a fantastic Christmas and New Year.

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STUART THEOBALD: If only we could shrug off labels and base policy on evidence

Nov 11, 2019

The strands of ideology that shape SA’s political economy are deep. Sometimes we are not even conscious of them. One of the most important is Marx’s theory of history, a vision of the world that...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Where action is at odds with rhetoric

Oct 7, 2019

This column was first published in Business Day Some deep questions are raised by the ANC’s national executive committee statement last week and rotate on […]

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Why prescribed assets are a bad idea

Sep 25, 2019

By: Dr Stuart Theobald, CFA Prescribed assets are increasingly being looked to as a solution for both urgent and longer-term development funding needs. This is […]

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: No, it will not be all fine in the end

Sep 23, 2019

I think there is a subset of ministers who actually do understand that the country is fundamentally in the wrong place. The problem is the system itself hasn’t flipped, given the lack of political...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: If the state cannot get PR right, it cannot deliver reform

Sep 9, 2019

In an environment of a trust deficit and zero benefit of the doubt, for the government to play its role will require leadership and an ability to manage the state — getting the building block of PR...

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STUART THEOBALD: Bootleggers and Baptists are holding up SA’s economic recovery

Sep 3, 2019

Two things are needed to break through the resistance: leadership and a just transition. A just transition that accommodates legitimate interests who stand to suffer short-term pain, is one way to...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Q&A with Ramaphosa gives reason for hope, capped by lack of reform

Aug 26, 2019

Much rhetoric but lack of dial-moving action are  leading to frustration among business. The foremost example of this has been the reaction of the telecoms industry to spectrum after the Q&A last...

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STUART THEOBALD: Unequal access to health care must change, but let’s also face reality

Aug 19, 2019

The debate over NHI has been characterised by a lack of positive alternatives that would meet constitutional muster. It is time we as a country are honest about both our means and our obligations.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Sipho Pityana’s Busa letter shows despair can be useful

Aug 12, 2019

A kind of mass hysteria is breaking out, some of it justified. Sentiment is getting weaker because nothing is being done

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STUART THEOBALD: Far from targeting Mkhwebane, banks are merely reacting to global pressure on money laundering

Aug 5, 2019

Public protector’s account is being investigated for exchange control violations and suspicious transaction from Hong Kong.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: SA tumbles in a slow-motion crash

Jul 29, 2019

Gains from improved collection by new management at the SA Revenue Service will be offset by emigration and lower growth than forecast. There are no gains to be had from higher taxes — they will...

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STUART THEOBALD: Flurry of takeover moves creates false idea of a bright future

Jul 22, 2019

SA’s companies are being targeted in a deal-making spree. Last week, PepsiCo launched a bid for Pioneer Foods, Clover got Competition Commission approval to be bought out by Israel’s Central...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Budget vote speeches show the government has no effective plan to create jobs

Jul 15, 2019

If you listened to the budget vote speeches last week — without the benefit of context — of the departments of trade, industry & competition and mineral resources & energy, what do you guess the...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Economy is in ICU and social compacting delays the treatment

Jul 1, 2019

Can you suffer death by social compacting? It seems the answer may be yes.

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STUART THEOBALD: It will be a new era if Ramaphosa can weld together his micro and macro policies

Jun 25, 2019

It is only in looking back that we can see the essence of an era. We can recognise and categorise the music of the eighties, nineties and even noughties, but it is hard to know the essential sounds of...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Policy has been weaponised in the ANC’s internal battle

Jun 10, 2019

There are some things you know you must get right. Where there should be an instinctive, reflexive desire but also institutional memory. Holding newborn babies is one of them. Friends are popping them...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Focus now falls on how ANC NEC moves forward

May 13, 2019

There is a lot of having-cake-and-eating-it going on in the SA commentariat and market commentary. It is quite nauseating. A positive story is always required even when the facts are tenuous.

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Good intentions need power of action to quell scepticism

Feb 11, 2019

When exactly do you start pencilling “intention” into a GDP forecast and into asset prices?

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Economic prospects for this year hinge on policy

Jan 22, 2019

Government continually reinvents old policy and Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex head of capital markets, says in last week’s Business Day column that it is now time to choose from the menu of...

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STUART THEOBALD: With Zuma gone, talk on policy may be back in vogue

Jan 21, 2019

Time to talk policy again in post-Zuma political era says Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald in Business Day.

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Cost of entry level housing is bad for transformation

May 26, 2014

The trend in lending patterns in the banking industry is damaging the transformation of the SA economy, particularly when it comes to home ownership. Since 2008, when banks were hit by a wave of bad...

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