Intellidex is a leading research and consulting firm that specialises in capital markets and financial services in Africa.
It is hard not to have a sense of apprehension going into 2022. Interest rates in SA are trending up from a 50-year low as we enter an upward cycle. Inflation in big markets is at levels not seen for...
Read moreIt is hard not to have a sense of apprehension going into 2022. Interest rates in SA are trending up from a 50-year low as we enter an upward cycle. Inflation in big markets is at levels not seen for...
Read moreSA has a habit of slowing down into major political events. Time seems to almost stand still. We saw it this past year with the municipal elections.
Read moreScreeching down the runway — in Ethiopian Airways’ shade-of-green seats — I had three flights ahead over the next 24 hours to try get home to the UK before red-list travel restrictions came into...
Read moreOur tourism industry desperately needed a strong December and that has been torn away in an instant. It is the most vulnerable corner of the economy and the distress there will inevitably spill into...
Read moreThe lack of justice being done, or seen to be done, shows a shocking lack of leadership, writes Peter Attard Montalto
Read moreIn the run-up to the Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, Ireland, from October 31 to November 12, South Africa is trying to commit […]
Read moreMaybe there is some SA exceptionalism that creeps into the demands to destroy orthodoxy.
Read moreGetting the private sector to increase investment levels could be a big win in the overall infrastructure effort.
Read moreThe visit of climate envoys to SA has been a useful shock to the system, enabling the country to step out of its comfort zone […]
Read moreSouth Africa’s recovery from a pandemic-induced contraction quickened in Q2 as restrictions to contain the pandemic were eased. GDP expanded 1.2% in the three months through June from a revised...
Read moreWe’ve only taken the first step towards energy reform, but it is a big step and we are now in a totally different era for the electricity supply industry.
Read moreStandoff between ANC and EFF is due to people feeling they cannot accrue tangible economic benefits.
Read moreIs the government able to manage a process that demands more and more changes as it unfolds?
Read moreIt is the first time there has been a policy reform that has uncontrolled scalability.
Read moreThe decision has had a substantial and negative effect on public interest in conflict with the Competition Act
Read moreLoose monetary policy eases credit access for the rich, but squeezes the poor. Also, volumes among unsecured lenders are falling. This column was first published […]
Read moreBy shunning outcomes, normal market mechanisms are turned on their head.
Read moreA choice on which infrastructure rollout system works for the state has never really been made.
Read moreThe list of distractions from what matters seems never-ending.
Read moreIndex has gained almost 80% since the plunge in March 2020, when lockdowns began worldwide.
Read moreWe do not see Ace Magashule standing aside voluntarily. We expect foresee him see out the full 30 days and then be suspended to get the maximum victim status, said says Intellidex’s Peter...
Read moreOur threadbare institutions need a redesign, not just patching.
Read moreBusiness Leadership SA launched a new report, drawn up by Intellidex, on infrastructure investment and how to boost volumes toward the National Development Plan's target of 30% of GDP, Infrastructure...
Read morePresident is wrong to chide banks for not rolling out R200bn-worth of loans.
Read moreStudent protests are a live example of the politics of austerity in action — less than a month after the budget.
Read moreAs the institutions’ exposure to the sovereign rises, quality of the state’s balance sheet worsens
Read moreIt has slightly lowered the dangers around debt and balanced the risks with a buffer against future shocks, but we didn’t get answers to fundamental […]
Read moreBig banks have been profitable despite the pandemic and capital levels have not been under huge pressure.
Read morePresident Cyril Ramaphosa was perky, the speech felt self-confident, and he had clearly found some groove with better delivery combining with a stronger rhythm in the structure of the speech.
Read moreThe problem with the idea of a state ba is that upon investigation you quickly realise that the problems that need to be solved can’t be solved that way.
Read morePutting a just energy transition at the centre of President Cyril Ramaphosa's February Sona would be a winner.
Read moreThe bigger problem is that the future business model of the Land Bank is highly uncertain.
Read moreSA needs new ideas for fiscal stimulus and financial support through the second wave and beyond.
Read moreIntellidex chair, Dr Stuart Theobald, assesses South Africa's performance over the last year and looks forward to the challenges of 2021
Read moreA lot of misdirected conclusions have been drawn from the court judgment on the public sector wage bill
Read moreThe lack of evidence-based thinking has also been prevalent in the economic response to the pandemic. Ultimately, evidence-based policy must be a culture more than a set of rules.
Read moreThe government should just get on with the business of dealing decisively with energy policy, show some leadership and cut the stalling.
Read moreRamaphosa could use the conference this week to shift emphasis away from public projects.
Read moreWhy lenders and borrowers have given the government’s bank guarantee loan scheme the cold shoulder.
Read moreThe launch of the recovery plan by the president is a seminal moment which will define the path to economic doom or recovery.
Read moreCovid-19 has caused what statisticians call a regime change, because the underlying conditions that generate the data fundamentally changed during the lockdown.
Read moreScant insight into how government’s decision-making works is a problem that infects business and investor confidence.
Read moreHow is the sorry saga of SAA going to end?
Read moreCompanies must now expense the losses they expect to make as soon as their expectations change
Read moreSA’s wheels will just spin in the mud if it produces plans without specifics such as costs, responsibilities and timelines
Read moreThe state has given nod for easier credit criteria, but is a 6% writeoff a price worth paying for banks?
Read moreThe government will collapse under its debts if there is not a dramatic change of course.
Read moreWhat matters are the credibility gaps, not the fiscal measures that the Treasury announces.
Read moreThere are important moral and practical concerns that should guide the discussion on whether to disrupt multigenerational transfers of wealth.
Read moreThe tripartite alliance must do things differently if it is to triumph in a post-Covid reality.
Read moreThe fight over the future of economic policy is already brewing
Read moreSuretyship has been an issue elsewhere and tweaks may be needed to the local programme.
Read moreUnemployment figures and Eskom results were that sparked calls for an IMF bailout – but there are a lot of mitigating steps that government can still take before that, starting with the budget,...
Read moreThe government’s dangerously paternalistic streak is showing its worst side during the lockdown and current policymaking.
Read moreMy life is divided between the UK and SA. So I’ve seen the Covid-19 responses in both countries, and the comparisons are revealing.
Read moreThe coronavirus crisis has exposed a longstanding problem of abysmal consumer savings.
Read moreA social disaster is brewing due to covid-19.
Read moreAfter the health crisis forces in the government will be pulling in completely different directions.
Read moreThe financial turmoil will feature some elements of the Great Depression, a world war, the dot-com bubble and the 1970s oil crisis.
Read moreTownships and the informal economy: post-lockdown strategies.
Read moreThe government will attribute slow growth and recovery to the coronavirus and low global demand.
Read moreThe president’s response to the coronavirus has been solid while the Reserve Bank upgraded its response to bazooka-level; but the economy still faces severe contraction, says Peter Attard Montalto,...
Read moreBy Mmamoletji Thosago Vodacom, has agreed to cut its data prices following the Competition Commission’s data services market inquiry. Although the network provider has succumbed […]
Read moreThis is war. There is a health front, but also an economic front. Saving the economy will require wartime thinking.
Read moreThere is an urgent need to slow the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) in SA, irrespective of location. Urban areas likely to be hardest hit. Townships and informal settlements accommodate the...
Read moreThe increase in banks’ overdraft interest rate reflects their increasing risk aversion, says Intellidex’s head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in IOL .
Read moreMisconceptions overestimate and underestimate the finance minister’s powers
Read moreThis is the worst of times for the finance minister. But think about the best of times. In 2007, then finance minister Trevor Manuel announced a budget surplus in what was perhaps the most triumphant...
Read moreThe 2020 state of the nation address (Sona) on February 13 scores highly for PR/rhetoric (an 8/10), actual policy is “ok” (a 6.5/10, being generous), but signs of any shifts towards actual...
Read moreThe youth employment initiative announced at last week’s Sona will take 1% or R20bn of the 2021/21 national budget and it’s unclear where that money will come from apart from belt-tightening, says...
Read moreIt is now or never for implementation, especially with the budget coming up next week and the ability to gazette change at any time. Some hard choices over how cadres are deployed in government may...
Read moreThe GDPF, IDC and DBSA have finite balance sheets and have to manage their risk. Intellidex’s Stuart Theobald says drawing them in to bail out Eskom is dangerous. Catch the full interview with...
Read moreIntellidex chairperson Stuart Theobald weighs in on Cosatu’s proposal to rescue Eskom. Listen to the full conversation on The Eusebius McKaiser Show on 702.
Read moreCosatu’s Eskom proposal will spark contagion that spreads the financial problems of SOEs into government development financial institutions such as the GDPF, IDC and DBSA, […]
Read moreThis column was first published on Business Day Contagion from SA’s state-owned enterprises crisis is heading for its development finance institutions. It started with a […]
Read moreThe scale of unemployment and inequality in SA is such that you cannot “start somewhere” with large set-piece investments and hope things percolate downwards
Read morePolicy should focus on setting the rules for the private sector and letting it bring skills to the table, rather than trying to deliver all and sundry itself. He is running a ship that cannot attract...
Read moreIntellidex’s head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto, attended the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London on 20 January. He conveys his thoughts on some […]
Read moreHow many times can you say the same thing and still have people come along for the ride? When a process is mired in a lack of transparency can you say the opposite of what is actually happening?
Read moreThe oil and natural gas industry provides an obvious opportunity to add positive economic momentum while it is desperately needed. The bill is now in a consultation process, providing an opportunity...
Read moreThe public sector wage war and Eskom’s debilitating debt are key focuses in the coming year, yet the largest hurdles to be overcome are the […]
Read moreWe look forward to working vigorously with you next year to do that. The team at Intellidex wishes you a fantastic Christmas and New Year.
Read moreLegal obscurity means things could easily end up in court, particularly with unions already sounding litigious A version of this column was first published in […]
Read moreThis column was first published in Business Day The past two weeks of data for October gave the impression something is seriously wrong with the […]
Read moreMoody’s has been very clear that it is up to government now to consolidate expenditure and undertake growth boosting reform before February or … or […]
Read moreIt is clearly the case that Eskom would shed jobs in a financial turnaround. But just think of the destruction to employment that has been caused by Eskom’s dysfunction: the deindustrialisation of...
Read moreThis column was first published in Business Day Some deep questions are raised by the ANC’s national executive committee statement last week and rotate on […]
Read moreIt takes a rather pigheaded commitment to principle to tide it out, and shareholders can rightfully ask why they’re being forced to pay the cost. Manuel and the rest of the board have a task ahead...
Read moreBy: Dr Stuart Theobald, CFA Prescribed assets are increasingly being looked to as a solution for both urgent and longer-term development funding needs. This is […]
Read moreI think there is a subset of ministers who actually do understand that the country is fundamentally in the wrong place. The problem is the system itself hasn’t flipped, given the lack of political...
Read moreOur problem is the implementation. So far there are no implemented and reliable policies that business decisionmakers can see that will shift their return/risk expectations positively.
Read moreIn an environment of a trust deficit and zero benefit of the doubt, for the government to play its role will require leadership and an ability to manage the state — getting the building block of PR...
Read moreTwo things are needed to break through the resistance: leadership and a just transition. A just transition that accommodates legitimate interests who stand to suffer short-term pain, is one way to...
Read moreMuch rhetoric but lack of dial-moving action are leading to frustration among business. The foremost example of this has been the reaction of the telecoms industry to spectrum after the Q&A last...
Read morePublic protector’s account is being investigated for exchange control violations and suspicious transaction from Hong Kong.
Read moreIf you listened to the budget vote speeches last week — without the benefit of context — of the departments of trade, industry & competition and mineral resources & energy, what do you guess the...
Read moreWe want urbanisation to accompany widespread property ownership to ensure residents have a vested interest in urban development. While we have made much of the importance of giving people title to...
Read moreIt is only in looking back that we can see the essence of an era. We can recognise and categorise the music of the eighties, nineties and even noughties, but it is hard to know the essential sounds of...
Read moreIn the late 1990s 45 banks, mutual banks and homeland banks were operating in SA. That fell to a low of 18 by 2010, following a crisis of confidence in small banks. But the long hiatus since is over...
Read moreSA is full of contradictions and things that don’t make sense. It will be the job of the new administration — in the process of being appointed as this column goes to press — to pick at these...
Read moreSouth Africans’ over-indebtedness has long been a political risk for the financial system. Almost 10-million have impaired credit records and millions more struggle to meet repayments. That is a...
Read moreWhy invest only for financial gain, when your investment can also have positive social consequences? The idea that our investments can do good in the world, rather than just serve our narrow financial...
Read moreIn some ways I preferred the period of 2005-2008, when Cosatu would march to the Reserve Bank and make demands to the governor. They were simpler times, with simpler demands.
Read moreIntellidex is constantly monitoring the legislative and regulatory changes occurring in Parliament and elsewhere that affect the financial services sector clients. Intellidex social media editor Mayo...
Read moreSA is a complex swirl of emotions: edginess, anger, despair and resignation. Most worrying is that such emotions apply to business too, putting the country at a very dangerous point — there is a...
Read moreSA is a complex swirl of emotions: edginess, anger, despair and resignation. Most worrying is that such emotions apply to business too, putting the country at a very dangerous point — there is a...
Read moreOh what a dull, decrepit time to be a banker, especially a banker in one of the big four.
Read moreWho cares about visas? There is so much else going on in SA it’s sometimes a wonder why there is so much attention paid to this one issue.
Read moreI seldom encounter anyone who has a positive word to say about their banks. That’s why it is easy to believe that the market is ripe for competition. With the entry of several new banks —...
Read moreIPPs are a solution to Eskom’s woes, not the cause, says Intellidex Chairman Stuart Theobald in his Business Day column today.
Read moreHealth policies are researched and developed to achieve the best national outcomes. The system is pretty uncaring if you want something that is vaguely elective, but on the whole you feel very...
Read moreThe formal business sector in South Africa has been subjected to a propaganda onslaught that has damaged it. It has painted business as universally corrupt, led by unrepentant beneficiaries of...
Read moreThe Competition Commission should not stop at the prosecution of bank traders who manipulated the rand exchange rate. It should undertake a full investigation into the competitiveness of foreign...
Read moreThe trend in lending patterns in the banking industry is damaging the transformation of the SA economy, particularly when it comes to home ownership. Since 2008, when banks were hit by a wave of bad...
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Intellidex is a leading research and consulting firm that specialises in capital markets and financial services in Africa.