Intellidex in the media

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Letter: South Africa should not be on the travel red list

October 4, 2021

Politicians in the UK don’t seem to realise the outrage that came with the decision to keep SA on its travel red list. This isn’t […]

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RECENT POSTS

Letter: South Africa should not be on the travel red list

October 4, 2021

Politicians in the UK don’t seem to realise the outrage that came with the decision to keep SA on its travel red list. This isn’t […]

Read more

South Africa moves closer to basic income in wake of civil unrest

September 21, 2021

A basic income grant would be only one part of a social wage. There is healthcare, education — you need to think in broader terms, […]

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‘Mortal Combat’ Faces Standard Bank in Pursuit of Rich Africans

September 17, 2021

Previously Standard Bank was not doing such a good job in the mass market but it is now gaining momentum, says Nolwandle Mthombeni, senior banks […]

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South Africa: Economic recovery quickens in Q2 but risks remain

September 9, 2021

South Africa’s recovery from a pandemic-induced contraction quickened in Q2 as restrictions to contain the pandemic were eased. GDP expanded 1.2% in the three months through June from a revised...

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SA regulator slaps US firm with R50m fine over ‘misleading’ report on Capitec

September 9, 2021

I think Viceroy’s credibility has waned significantly, partly because of the work they did on Capitec which was a weak piece of research meant to whack the share price, says Stuart Theobald of...

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Banks battle for relevance in the platform era

August 31, 2021

Without a doubt, each time a new competitor comes in, banks have to watch and see what they are doing and how they are able to do something more efficiently than you are, says Intellidex’s senior...

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Land Bank wants to split in two so that it can repay debt

August 26, 2021

The Land Bank’s turnaround plan is positive but depends on the fast-tracking of a pledged R7bn government bailout, says Peter Attard Montalto, director at Intellidex. Creditors have been deeply...

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Big Four banking landscape: Lenders remain vigilant until they get the signal on economic growth

August 26, 2021

The business environment remains risky, volatile, and uncertain. Across all the banks, there has been limited corporate borrowing, says Nolwandle Mthombeni, senior banking analyst with Intellidex....

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Economic reforms like private energy generation will drag SA from ashes of unrest

August 17, 2021

Changes to schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act are significant and can spur substantial investment. Intellidex believes that even on a narrow reading, the regulation can still unlock...

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Analysis: Was Mboweni pushed or not?

August 12, 2021

Technically former finance minister Tito Mboweni may well have resigned but the political machinations and motivations are key. He likely has been forced out by the SACP and Cosatu with President...

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Bank Zero Enters South African Market Seeking Pandemic Rebound

August 12, 2021

While Bank Zero has got off to a late start given delays mainly related to the pandemic, it is joining the market in time to take advantage of a push by the government and private sector to shore up...

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Big banks will report bumper profits – but their dividends probably won’t play catch-up

August 12, 2021

With bank results season upon us, Intellidex senior banks analyst Nolwandle Mthombeni weighed in on what we are likely to see. She says that dividend […]

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South Africa’s localisation policy may rile global trade partners and break international law

August 6, 2021

Intellidex research  in May found that government’s 20% substitution target was probably not realistic, even though businesses overall were positive about the potential for localisation. Featured...

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‘Sensible’, ‘stable’ Enoch Godongwana well received as SA’s new finance minister

August 6, 2021

Last night President Cyril Ramaphosa reshuffled his cabinet which brought in the head of the ANC's economic transformation committee, Enoch Godongwana, as South Africa's new finance minister....

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BEE shifts in the air

August 3, 2021

In an Intellidex report for the Banking Association South Africa, Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo says corruption has been used by some to discredit or discourage the need for transforming our...

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Here’s how foreign investors, markets are reacting to the unrest in SA

July 15, 2021

In discussing how foreign investors and markets are reacting to the unrest in South Africa, Peter Attard Montalto tells CNBC Africa that the unrest and arson do not necessarily mean that foreign...

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Economic impact of riots and looting in South Africa and wider emerging problems

July 15, 2021

Plans to send 25,000 soldiers on a peacekeeping mission have come too late, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Business Tech. 

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The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Peter Attard Montalto, Head of Capital Markets Research at Intellidex.

July 13, 2021

There has been a brewing concern about security issues among investors, given the recent looting. South Africa has not had this problem before. Has SA […]

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WATCH: Is President Cyril Ramaphosa disconnected from mining reality?

July 9, 2021

Business Day’s Michael Avery talks to Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex; Paul Miller, director of mining supply sales consultancy AmaranthCX; and Matthew Parks,...

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What the future holds for Eskom as SA moves to liberalize energy market

June 29, 2021

The alcohol ban is overall a blunt instrument to ensure that ICU beds are available. There is some evidence supporting that it works, but generally it does not, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard...

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R100bn in investments for power supply

June 14, 2021

Due to growing pressure from business to increase the threshold to at least 50MW, President Cyril Ramaphosa ended up increasing the threshold of unlicensed power generation to 100MW. This move will...

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Self-generation threshold shift positive

June 14, 2021

The increased threshold of unlicensed power generation to 100MW, which is ten times more than what mineral resources and energy minister Gwede Mantashe had proposed, is a positive step. However, there...

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Succession planning in banking – following ABSA AGM outcomes

June 8, 2021

Listen to Power FM Khaya Sithole in conversation with Nolwandle Mthombeni, senior banks analyst at ‎Intellidex as they talk about succession planning in banking. Mthombeni highlighted that it’s...

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S. Africa Unemployment at New High as Building, Trade Cut Jobs

June 8, 2021

Unemployment is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels given we don’t see real per capita output returning to pre-crisis levels, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at...

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Social impact bonds fund welfare projects

June 8, 2021

Following our research into SA’s first two social impact bonds (Bonds4Jobs and IBIF), the hope is that future social impact bonds will build in rigorous impact evaluation – rather than simple...

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Nolwandle Mthombeni | Cash is king – it’s time we overthrew it

June 1, 2021

The banking sector is facing an intensifying threat from fintech. But banks are playing the long game, and cash is – sadly – still king. While having world class payment platforms is only great if...

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Financial Mail Ranking the Analysts 2021

May 28, 2021

The FM Ranking the Analyst survey remains the most comprehensive assessment of SA’s top investment researchers. The FM has been publishing the rankings since 1977 and Intellidex has been conducting...

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WATCH: A net-carbon-zero SA by 2050 is ‘unrealistic’

May 28, 2021

Business Day TV’s Michael Avery talks to a panel about balancing SA's commitments of net carbon zero by 2050 with the economic potential of recent oil and gas finds off the...

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Why ‘going local’ isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

May 27, 2021

A new research report into localisation by consulting firm Intellidex, which was commissioned jointly by Business Unity SA (Busa) and Business Leadership SA (BLSA), finds that the 20% import...

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CLAIRE BISSEKER: Ebrahim Patel shoots first then takes aim with localisation policy

May 26, 2021

A one-size-fits-all localisation policy that requires firms to substitute 20% of imports with locally made goods within five years is unrealistic because the right conditions do not exist in most...

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Social impact bonds fund welfare projects: how South Africa’s first two have done

May 18, 2021

The next frontier in social impact bonds is attracting larger volumes of commercial investment. For this to happen, bigger transactions serving more beneficiaries are needed, writes Zoheb Khan, social...

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The price of impact: South Africa’s social bonds offer reward despite challenges

May 18, 2021

Social return is seen as an objective of investors that can be traded off against financial return, Intellidex said in its social impact bonds report. Featured on SPGlobal.com

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Long delay in dividend flows to renewables-linked community trusts impeding effectiveness

May 7, 2021

The Communities in Transition report, produced by Intellidex and funded by FirstRand, estimates the projected dividend flows from projects procured, to date, under the REIPPPP will be about...

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Business still not making B-BBEE targets, survey finds

May 7, 2021

The Sanlam Gauge report, in partnership with Sunday Times Business Times, provides a national and sectoral score on transformation in the SA economy. The research and report...

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ANC factional battles: How strong is Ramaphosa’s hand?

May 7, 2021

President Ramaphosa can certainly take charge of logistical operations within Luthuli House and even put in place some branch orders but this is not going to suddenly lead to economic growth and...

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Savings rise amid Covid fallout

May 5, 2021

The precautionary motive to save is common whenever people feel uncertain about the future, as is the case during the Covid pandemic with higher levels of household savings recorded, says...

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Empowerment financing slumps, but is still above target — banking sector report

May 3, 2021

The Transformation in Banking report, commissioned by the Banking Association South Africa (Basa), shows that Black women voting rights increased to 12.6% from 11.4% — the highest level since 2016....

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Banking is transforming, but government has to ensure pie grows, says Basa

May 3, 2021

The Transformation in Banking report released last week was produced by financial markets research and consulting firm Intellidex. It evaluates progress across a wide range of measures from 2016 to...

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DIGITAL CONFERENCE | B-BBEE must move from rules-based to impact-centred

May 3, 2021

The @Sanlam Gauge report, which measures B-BBEE across all sectors, will be launched on 6 May. The research and editorial was conducted by Intellidex in partnership with Arena Holdings, the Sunday...

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Transformation in SA banks doing just fine, says industry body

May 3, 2021

While Maluleka and Mminele’s exits garnered a lot of attention, there were transformational gains that happened quietly last year, such as the appointment of a black female CEO at Bidest Bank, says...

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WATCH: How social impact bonds can transform SA’s social services

April 16, 2021

Are social impact bonds the answer to better social welfare services? To answer this question, Business Day TV’s Alishia Seckam spoke to Intellidex social economy research manager Dr Zoheb Khan, who...

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Nolwandle Mthombeni | Proceed with caution: How SA’s consumers are healing from the pandemic

April 16, 2021

Household savings as a percentage of GDP grew from 1.2% in 2019 to 2% in 2020. It is the strongest savings performance since 2004, notes Intellidex’s Nolwandle Mthombeni in her fin24 column. 

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WATCH: Unblocking the infrastructure pipeline with PPP reform

March 30, 2021

Following the launch of the Infrastructure for South Africa report, Business Leadership SA CEO Busi Mavuso and Intellidex executive chair Stuart Theobald discussed with Business Day TV’s Michael...

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BLSA: Postive signs of our switch to a renewable future

March 29, 2021

Intellidex estimates that the economy was losing about R700m a day from load-shedding pre-crisis and the number is slightly lower since the pandemic began.

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Governor of the SARB in conversation with SA Chamber of Commerce UK

March 29, 2021

Peter Attard Montalto, director at the SA Chamber of Commerce UK and head of capital markets research at Intellidex, spoke to South Africa Reserve Bank […]

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Frustrated funders lose ground as Land Bank debt talks drag on

March 29, 2021

The Land Bank restructuring has set a poor precedent as an early test case for the Treasury’s approach to managing distressed debt, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research...

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South Africa seeks lesser of two evils with Eskom debt options

March 29, 2021

Eskom ultimately seems to have one option and we are honing in on that: the sovereign taking the risk, says Peter Attard Montalto, the London-based head of […]

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Public private partnerships ‘key’ to lifting infrastructure investment

March 29, 2021

The Infrastructure Fund is important to crowd in the private sector. But to lift investment, we need a macro solution, says Intellidex chair, Stuart Theobald. Featured in Business Day. 

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WATCH: Banking on better days

March 24, 2021

Business Day TV’s Michael Avery and guest experts unpack the bank earnings report released by PwC Africa. Intellidex senior banks analyst Nolwandle Mthombeni commented on the big four banks.

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Operation Vulindlela: An uphill all the way

March 18, 2021

While Operation Vulindlela injects a sense of burrowing persistence on reform, however the unit is unlikely to move the needle much on growth until business responds with increased confidence and...

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Much-touted R200bn Covid-19 loan bailout scheme set to end in failure

March 18, 2021

Intellidex says a future loan scheme should be tweaked to reduce suretyship requirements, introduce an upfront commitment to targeted loan volumes by banks, and potentially lower interest rates....

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Nolwandle Mthombeni | Challenging the Mastercard and Visa duopoly? Priceless

March 18, 2021

Together, Mastercard and Visa hold over 75% market share in global purchase transactions and are the two largest card schemes, but SA could be the latest country to challenge the duopoly, says...

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INTERVIEW | Absa is reinventing itself to claim rightful place in Africa – CEO Daniel Mminele

March 17, 2021

While Absa had some footprint in Africa under Barclays, it never set its eyes on being a big pan-African bank before, says Nolwandle Mthombeni, senior banks analysts at Intellidex. Featured on...

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Financial exclusion: Big concern facing the nation

March 17, 2021

There were three reports that came out between 2015 and 2017 looking at the future of higher education funding which never fully got implemented, said Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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Is South Africa’s carbon footprint a deterrent to investors?

March 12, 2021

Investors in SA equities and bonds are thinking a lot about the environmental impact of their investing activities and SA sticks out like a sore thumb, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto on...

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Eskom sees opportunity for green financing deals ahead of COP26

March 2, 2021

There is a lot of interest from international finance and development institutions in doing transition financing with Eskom. But it’s dependent on the sovereign making net zero commitments by 2050,...

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WATCH: Budget Review — wrestling the hippo

February 26, 2021

When you asses the forecasts and the budget documents, the 1.6% long-term forecast for GDP growth is embedding in a lot of the reforms that Operation Vulindlela is putting into place, says Peter...

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Govt announces zero-based budgeting in two Departments

February 26, 2021

Zero-based budgeting has been used elsewhere in the world. It’s often used after deep financial crises, such as in eastern Europe or where the IMF and the World Bank comes in for a capacity building...

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TymeBank looks to Asia and retail loans to outgrow its baby shoes

February 25, 2021

Considering that TymeBank needed about R1bn to break even just a few months ago, it will be left with only R600m to invest in its new initiatives, notes Nolwandle Mthombeni, senior banks analyst at...

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At least two S.African banks likely to pay dividends after Central Bank eases guidance

February 25, 2021

I expect the big four banks to pay out dividends even though it will be less than their historic dividend policies as they will need to be cautious in the face of the lingering Covid-19 uncertainties,...

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What are foreign investors looking for out of Mboweni’s budget?

February 25, 2021

We were expecting to hear more from Minister Mboweni about Operation Vulindlela – the joint venture between National Treasury and the Presidency meant to drive reforms, says Intellidex’s Peter...

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Budget review: Local asset manager perspective Foreign Investor Perspective

February 25, 2021

Operation Vulindlela is doing the right things on behalf of National Treasury and the Presidency. However, if you do not break through the political blockages then you cannot move the dial, says...

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Banks get go-ahead to resume dividends

February 23, 2021

Kuben Naidoo, the SARB deputy governor and CEO of the Prudential Authority – has cautioned the banking industry to tread carefully as it juggles the positive effects of higher economic growth...

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Banks left scrambling after SA Reserve Bank throws a curveball on dividends

February 23, 2021

The South African Reserve Bank’s Prudential Authority giving banks the go ahead on dividend payments as they put the finishing touches to their 2020 financial results, but some banks have already...

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Bank Dividend Reprieve Comes With Warning in South Africa

February 23, 2021

Banks are sufficiently capitalised and have shown resilience and therefore are in a better position to pay dividends, and that’s the sense from the market as well, notes Intellidex Nolwandle...

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SA’s Covid-19 Loan Guarantee Scheme ‘largely dead’ – Intellidex

February 23, 2021

In a report published last week, Intellidex says that the Covid-19 Loan Guarantee Scheme (LGS) is now “moribund”. Featured in Moneyweb. 

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5 signs that SA economy isn’t dead yet – in fact, it’s doing better than expected

February 23, 2021

National Treasury announced stronger government tax revenue in December 2020 compared to December 2019. This was partly due to an extreme positive revenue shock from mining and corporate tax, says...

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Burning Fiscus | Is SAA a critical asset, or will taxpayers just keep coughing up?

February 18, 2021

Existing SA airlines should be incentivised to expand, have domestic supply chains, hire and train black pilots and even run important routes with support from government, says Intellidex’s Peter...

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Banks’ fossil fuel exposure criticized as South Africa plans ‘just transition’

February 18, 2021

SA banks aren’t disclosing a lot about ESG that we would like to know. The catalyst for change largely comes from external sources, particularly European shareholders and funders who...

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Nolwandle Mthombeni | Is banking as we know it over for good?

February 17, 2021

As digital banking continues to go from strength to strength, big banks inadvertently help the trend along by making branch visits the worst customer experience ever, argues Nolwandle Mthombeni,...

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South Africa’s fiscal crunch: ‘We do not have the money’

February 8, 2021

The pandemic hasn’t created South Africa’s problems, but it has accelerated them and allowed us to leap several years down the existing path, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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Finance Minister’s call to turn African Bank to state bank are ” not positive”

February 8, 2021

The idea of a state bank is the ultimate zombie idea and has been around for some time. It has no good reason to it, argues Dr Stuart Theobald, executive chair at Intellidex. Listen to the 702...

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WATCH: Top 500 bank brands impaired by Covid-19

February 3, 2021

Our banks are systematically important to our economic and financial system. Each time our economy comes under pressure there is going to be less lending and more impairments, says Intellidex’s new...

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GameStop… a game changer

February 1, 2021

We witnessed a David-Goliath situation with the GameStop phenomenon. Small investors managed to draw in a lot of other investors to buy stocks and challenge big hedge funds, says Intellidex’ senior...

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SA’s economy during COVID-19

January 28, 2021

The International Monetary Fund has completed its routine engagements with South Africa and has highlighted that the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated SA’s growth and fiscal position. News channel...

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Covid-19, elections and the economy – what South Africans can expect in 2021

January 26, 2021

Structural reform will happen but not with the required speed, because of constraints such as an ineffective presidency machine, lack of deploying political capital, endless social compacting...

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South Africa: What’s the 2021+ baseline?

January 21, 2021

The weak status of the fiscus means that tax hikes were bound to happen anyway even if there was no need to fund a vaccine procurement programme, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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South Africa’s state power monopoly seeks to raise prices to avoid collapse

December 22, 2020

 An offer to investors to swap their Eskom bonds for sovereign paper would be more effective than swapping for equity because Eskom debt is already widely seen as a de facto government obligation,...

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Eskom’s Bailout Emerging as Equity Swap by Biggest Bondholder

December 17, 2020

The sustainability of Eskom’s debt and the risks it poses to state finances are now arousing political interests who are increasingly interested in grasping a solution, says Peter Attard Montalto,...

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The year of the pandemic — 2020 according to economists

December 10, 2020

2020 has shown that the SA government has some capacity to move at speed in a crisis, but its overall economic policymaking is a serious mess that lacks leadership, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of...

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STUART THEOBALD: Public policy issue makes pensions political

November 30, 2020

The public policy position must be looked at with clear eyes. We need to understand what it is we want to achieve with pension systems before we try to engineer the outcomes.

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SA’s ratings slippery slope

November 26, 2020

SA’s deep problems are simply not being dealt with at the requisite speed, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Financial Mail. 

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Is BEE working? New Sanlam Gauge report aims to give definitive view

November 20, 2020

Is broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE) working to transform SA's economy? A tough question to answer, but a new consolidated report, to be researched by Intellidex, could now point the...

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This is South Africa’s jobs outlook for the rest of the year

November 17, 2020

While there has been some recovery, the stress is still there – the unemployment rate is still about 1.85-million higher than in the first quarter, notes Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto....

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Magashule’s supporters target Ramaphosa: report

November 17, 2020

Following the ANC’s August NEC meeting, Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto said that it is unlikely that any calls to remove the president would fly until […]

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Hard decisions needed to tackle public sector pay, says Busa

November 10, 2020

Intellidex finds that there is no evidence that the rapid public sector wage increases have been accompanied by or driven by increases in productivity. Featured in Business Day. 

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5 important things happening in South Africa today

November 10, 2020

Business Unity SA says public service workers are paid too much for what they do. Research conducted by Intellidex shows that government workers are paid an average of R400,000 and have seen...

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This is what the average government worker gets paid in South Africa

November 10, 2020

Pay rises have been fastest for those on the lowest salary levels and has been progressively slower higher up the hierarchy, Intellidex notes in its public sector wage bill report produced for...

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JSE in support of capital flow reforms

November 5, 2020

The JSE, in partnership with Intellidex, put forward a position paper to policy makers that proposes exchange control reform. Featured on CNBC Africa. 

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SA’s day of reckoning

November 5, 2020

The level of expenditure cuts being pushed down to the provinces has never fully crystallised into hard choices until now. Provinces and municipalities will be in shock when they understand the full...

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LUKANYO MNYANDA: It’s time to come clean on the R200bn lending stimulus that isn’t

November 3, 2020

Take-up of the state-guaranteed loans has been poor, with about R16bn being extended. If you are using R200bn as a starting point, that’s just 12% and it’s fair to say it’s been a failure. Check...

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JSE takes steps to lure more capital

November 3, 2020

The JSE’s move to list instruments across many currencies will bring it into line with exchanges such as Mauritius and Dubai, which list hard-currency instruments, says Intellidex chair, Stuart...

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Moody’s warns over the lack of detail in Mboweni’s budget

November 2, 2020

The possibility of ratings cuts in the coming six months by most agencies has solidified. This is particularly because National Treasury is unable to give them sufficient detail on the public sector...

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To make the budget work, government needs unions on board – and they’re not

November 2, 2020

Basing future estimations on a 0% wage increase for public workers may already put the budget outside the realm of reality, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Business Tech. 

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ROB ROSE: Why Ramaphosa needs to realise it’s the economy, stupid

November 2, 2020

Funding SAA by curtaining funding needed for schools and health treatment is Treasury’s way of making the ANC’s NEC feel the pain, says Intellidex chairperson Stuart Theobald. Featured in Rob...

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WATCH: Government and labour still poles apart ahead of key MTBPS

October 28, 2020

We need a total change in the mindset around the public sector wage bill. Public sector workers need to either step-up productivity or ship out, argues Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in an...

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Mini budget acid test: business and markets will watch for privatisation signals and containment of debt

October 23, 2020

Business wants to see National Treasury doing whatever is in its power to boost economic growth that doesn’t require the say-so of other departments, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto in...

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De Ruyter: Green financiers standing by to support Eskom’s just energy transition

October 23, 2020

Green financing would not reduce the size of Eskom’s debt burden but would rather be a cheaper form of financing, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex....

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Tito Mboweni asks for a ‘mini budget’ delay – a worrying sign the economic line isn’t holding

October 15, 2020

South Africa dropped off the World Bank’s 22 October meeting because discussions on a $2bn loan facility had stalled, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Daily Maverick.

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How worried should we be about speculation that Mboweni will increase taxes?

October 15, 2020

Some of the reasons why Treasury had to push the MTBPS back by a week are the need to accommodate SOE bailout decisions and digest President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech today, says Peter Attard...

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SA’s fiscal credibility gap widens

October 9, 2020

There is already R16.4bn in the medium-term budget for the grounded national carrier so it’s probable that SAA will remain a never-ending drain, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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Stuart Theobald weighs in on the VBS case

October 9, 2020

There is serious prosecutorial ambition in the VBS case, says Intellidex chair Stuart Theobald in an interview on NewzRoom Afrika.

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Should SAA be kept afloat?

October 1, 2020

Treasury has found itself in a difficult position because of an ANC and Cabinet resolution that SAA must be saved, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex in an...

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If government doesn’t have money to pay public wages – what are they stealing?

October 1, 2020

Government finding the money to bail out SAA yet again signals to unions – and possibly the courts – that with enough political will the state can find money, says Peter Attard Montalto....

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Eskom SOE debt crisis: what is to be done?

September 29, 2020

What is to be done in reducing Eskom’s towering debt? Intellidex’s Stuart Theobald helps us answer this question. Featured in the CBPEP Colloquium 2020 conference report. 

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Taxpayers should foot the bill for a R1,500 basic income grant in South Africa: unions

September 25, 2020

The debate around a basic income grant has been going on for about 20 years. While it could reduce poverty in SA by as much as 75%, affordability is the issue, says Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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South Africa does not have a viable economic recovery plan: analyst

September 22, 2020

A compact does not bind any party and is not ‘the government recovery policy’ – even if a Nedlac plan is ‘noted’ by cabinet, notes Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Business...

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Will Cabinet provide SAA with the funding of R10.5-billion?

September 22, 2020

The politics was decided some time ago as there was a resolution within the ANC’s NEC that SAA needed to be saved, says Intellidex’s capital markets analyst, Peter Attard Montalto, in his...

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South Africa’s economic woes

September 17, 2020

The delay in the release of mobile spectrum is a perfect example of what is holding South Africa’s economy back from catching up, argues Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Financial Times. 

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The Bottom Line: 15 September 2020

September 16, 2020

The design of the bank guarantee loan scheme was based on the assumption that the lockdown would be extensive, but SA emerged from it faster than expected, says Intellidex’s Stuart Theobald in an...

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S.Africa’s coronavirus loan scheme lags, hobbling govt relief package

September 15, 2020

The purpose that the bank loan guarantee loan scheme was initially designed to meet – buttressing businesses during the lockdown – no longer exists, says Intellidex chair Stuart Theobald. Featured...

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Timely study of SA pension funds’ attitude to ESG

September 7, 2020

The Investing for Impact report, funded by Ashburton Investments and produced by Intellidex, lays the foundation for much of the debate still to come. Featured in Todays Trustee. 

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Don’t be too quick to believe the hype – it’s the same old ANC: analyst

September 3, 2020

The past weekend seems to have been the triumph of over-simplistic reporting, the taking of spin and the need for many to have a moment of Ramaphoria again, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard...

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Rand weaker as fiscal, political risks back on investors’ radars

September 3, 2020

Most of the corruption measures announced by the ANC were already part of the party’s resolutions and rules so while the dial is flicking on dealing with corruption, the bar has not yet been met,...

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South Africa’s odious debt tale

September 1, 2020

Investors are taking a forward-looking view that SA does not have the political capital to turn the boat around fast enough, either for fiscal measures or reforms for higher potential growth, says...

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Market doubts as South Africa’s Nedbank hopes worst is over

August 27, 2020

Banks taking an extra conservative approach to impairments are finding market support, says Intellidex's Stuart Theobald. Featured in Reuters. 

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Determined policy action is urgently needed to stimulate an economy knee-deep in debt, disease and dysfunction

August 21, 2020

With SA at the jaws of the hippo, failure to fix our problems means that the IMF will shut the hippo’s jaws for us, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Daily Maverick. 

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South Africa’s coronavirus response

August 21, 2020

SA’s economic response has been haphazard, late and frankly poorly thought-out, says Intellidex’s head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Bloomberg Quint. 

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Cyril Ramaphosa is losing support, as business warns of deep lasting damage

August 21, 2020

We expect a very sluggish recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. National Treasury’s stimulus package will run its course, but unemployment will rise and credit conditions tighten. Intellidex is...

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Crazy-rich Africans fear instability

August 18, 2020

The majority of high net worth individuals in SA, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana are concerned about the political environment as they look to create, preserve and spend their wealth, the African Wealth...

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South Africa’s ultra-wealthy make their money much later in life – here’s why

August 13, 2020

The African Wealth Report, commissioned by Standard Bank and produced by Intellidex, shows that SA produces more than 70% of its high net-worth individuals through executive careers as opposed to...

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Refinancing of renewable IPPs won’t temper electricity tariffs

August 12, 2020

Renegotiating early power purchase agreements with renewable energy producers will have a negligible effect on the overall electricity tariffs that will be more than offset by the higher tariffs to...

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Fewer than 10,000 businesses helped by scheme intended to assist 700,000

August 11, 2020

In June, research house Intellidex analysed why the bank guarantee scheme was not working and concluded that it had come “too late” — seven weeks after lockdown when some businesses had already...

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Mboweni has the power to do more to stop looting: Trevor Manuel

August 11, 2020

The ANC is fundamentally incapable of shifting on corruption – not without a wholesale realignment of its membership, its parliamentary representatives and even those in government, argues Peter...

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Institutional investing in a post Covid-19 world

August 6, 2020

Transformation has been a major topic for financial services for some time. It is in the institutional stockbroking market where it has appeared to move more slowly, says Intellidex chairperson,...

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Apocalypse just now: Can SA’s economy still be saved?

August 6, 2020

Perhaps change will happen in SA if people abandoned their unrealistic hope and started recognising the scale of the crisis to come, says Intellidex’s lead capital markets research analyst, Peter...

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SIU files court papers to recover R3.8bn from Molefe, Koko, Guptas and others at Eskom

August 4, 2020

The recovery of R3.8bn is a drop in the ocean compared to Eskom's debt burden of R450bn. Deeper underlying work needs to be done around Eskom's balance sheet, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard...

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SA’s top private banks and wealth managers

July 30, 2020

Covid-19 has changed just about everything — but in the wealth management space, tried and trusted principles still apply, writes Intellidex GM Colin Anthony reporting on the 2020 top private banks...

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The ANC will struggle to keep economic promises to the IMF after its ‘Rubicon’ moment

July 30, 2020

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto has likened SA’s IMF loan to a kind of crossing of the ‘Rubicon’ as commitment to reforms by minister Mboweni and governor Kganyago are about to unleash...

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Ramaphosa should have put his name on SA’s IMF letter

July 30, 2020

It is a pity  that President Cyril Ramaphosa did not sign the IMF letter of intent because the promises made on debt, policy reform and budget cuts will have deep and wide political implications,...

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All conditions for SAA rescue plan have now been met, practitioners announce

July 29, 2020

As the tortuous process of the business rescue practitioners comes to an end, SAA still has no money and labour unions are getting restless, comments Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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South Africa names first projects in R2.3 trillion infrastructure drive

July 28, 2020

The gazetting of the list of infrastructure projects earmarked for potential investment is welcome but seems to lack any detail at all and we still await a policy statement, says Peter Attard...

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South Africa says lenders commit $21 billion to building projects

July 28, 2020

Details about government’s infrastructure plans are still scant so it is difficult to determine how viable the financing plans really are, says Stuart Theobald, chairman of Intellidex. Featured in...

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Denel CEO resignation casts doubts on President Ramaphosa’s SOE reform agenda

July 23, 2020

There is a risk that Du Toit's successor at Denel will also leave because of similar challenges. The fundamental problem of SOEs is the need to move with decisiveness and speed, which isn’t there,...

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WATCH: Is the SA Reserve Bank being too conservative?

July 23, 2020

Michael Avery debates the Bank’s monetary policy committee meeting with a panel of experts.

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Gordhan, Mboweni commit in letter to obtain funding for SAA

July 21, 2020

The joint letter from finance minister Mboweni and public enterprises minister Gordhan will be enough to move SAA’s business rescue process forward. But it actually provides no commitment to...

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SAA may see a rainbow, but the DPE still needs a pot of gold

July 15, 2020

There is no doubt that National Treasury will be aware of the negative signal that funding SAA will send and the dangerous precedent this sets […]

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ANC’s Economic Transformation Committee wants a pro-growth monetary policy to help SA rebuild

July 10, 2020

The ANC’s Economic Transformation Committee discussion document, on how SA can rebuild its economy to recover from Covid-19 effects, doesn't have the necessary “oomph” to move the debate...

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Supplementary budget puts South Africa on the edge

July 7, 2020

Intellidex estimates that if the R500bn fiscal package were fully implemented, then SA’s GDP could contract by 10%. However, without proper implementation of the package, the GDP contraction is...

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As emerging markets stagger, pandemic spurs social bond issuance

July 3, 2020

Intellidex believes that a government social bond issuance could make a significant contribution to SA’s funding gap and can be important if the Covid-19 crisis goes through multiple waves in the...

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‘Strong risk’ of higher stage metro lockdowns in July and August: analyst

July 2, 2020

There is still a strong risk of higher stage metro lockdowns in July and August – next week’s national command council meeting is key to this, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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Where are the risks lurking on the JSE?

July 2, 2020

Intellidex’s Orin Tambo and Phibion Makuwerere have identified the risk levels of various JSE-listed small- and mid-cap companies in relation to the Covid-19 environment. Featured in Moneyweb. 

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The massive risk tied to Mboweni’s emergency budget

June 25, 2020

Wednesday’s supplementary budget was left naked by the inability of cabinet to agree on a phase 3 recovery plan. All eyes for this are now on the medium-term budget in October – which is too late,...

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Budget review – foreign investor view

June 25, 2020

The key issue about Mboweni’s supplementary budget is credibility. Treasury is saying we need to go with the scenario that sees debt stabilised in 2023/24, but it didn’t really demonstrate how...

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South Africa needs SAA and ‘serious players’ are interested in its value

June 25, 2020

While the public enterprises department talks about a minority stake in SAA for government, it would want to retain a veto right on key issues which would likely mean no strategic equity partner would...

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Financial Mail’s Top Analysts for 2020 will be announced online

June 23, 2020

The 2020 Financial Mail Ranking the Analysts awards will be hosted online on July 28. The research, conducted by Intellidex, is estimated to cover 90% of the institutional market through confidential...

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QE or not, South Africa’s bond buying is risky to fiscal stability

June 23, 2020

Quantitative easing is meant to pump money into the system, whereas what the SA Reserve Bank has done doesn't have that objective. SARB's objective is to shift rates — what it's doing is consistent...

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R200bn COVID-19 loan scheme: Is it too late to save SA businesses?

June 19, 2020

One requirement to reform the bank guarantee loan scheme to improve take up is to remove restrictions of what borrowers can do with the money. At the moment they can only use the loan to cover their...

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Banks lend R7bn in first month of Covid-19 guarantee scheme

June 19, 2020

Moneyweb reports that National Treasury and the SARB are reviewing the R200bn bank loan guarantee scheme. BASA has pointed to several issues in the scheme that Intellidex also covered in its paper on...

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South Africa hopes to ease access to COVID loans amid low payouts

June 17, 2020

It is not meant to be business as usual and one reason why the bank guarantee loan scheme does not seem to be working as intended is because banks often require personal guarantees for the loans, as...

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Nuclear shifts into gear despite coronavirus slump – can SA afford it?

June 17, 2020

SA’s fiscus can’t carry the cost and corruption risk of a 2,500MW nuclear project and the timing of issuing the RFI document is not right, as the country's energy needs have changed given the...

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‘Significant increase’ in R200bn Covid-19 credit guarantee scheme loans

June 17, 2020

The bank guarantee loan scheme has onerous conditions and risks for entrepreneurs as it requires personal suretyship to back their loans. These will have to be removed to encourage greater uptake,...

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Privilege and inheritance: Time to disrupt intergeneration transfers of wealth?

June 12, 2020

SA’s major problems are inequality and poverty and we need to question whether an inheritance tax is an effective way to deal with these problems – I doubt it is, says Stuart Theobald, financial...

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Mediated conversation: Should SA borrow money from the IMF?

June 12, 2020

Other than the IMF, other routes that SA is considering for borrowing are Brics’ New Development Bank, the African Development Bank and the World Bank – and all of these have money they can give...

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How SA businesses are dealing with financial stress of COVID-19

June 11, 2020

Intellidex’s Covid-19 Stress in SA report finds that even companies within the same industry are being affected differently. Those with strong balance sheets will fare better, says Phibion...

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IMF aid

June 10, 2020

An IMF programme may be inevitable. Countries must either reform themselves or reform is eventually imposed upon them, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex....

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Experts weigh in on SA’s post-virus economy

June 3, 2020

The talk of guidance, in the ANC's economic transformation committee draft document, is code for direction. We are seeing this in the way energy policy is being centrally controlled and not...

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SA’s economic policy directions under the spotlight

June 3, 2020

Growing the economy, curbing unemployment, eliminating racial biases in resources and reducing SA’s carbon emission footprint are all important and we need a balanced pursuit of these objectives...

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Sovereign social bond could help to fill the funding gap

May 21, 2020

Governments are realising that they can leverage growing investor appetite for social bonds that “do good” while delivering an acceptable financial return. This led to Intellidex and the Covid-19...

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Social bond could target R100bn to help Covid-19 response

May 21, 2020

The issuance of a social bond could make a significant contribution to the government’s funding gap, raising funds at a low cost while diversifying the government’s investment base to include ESG...

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South Africa’s central bank to cut rates again, resist QE pressure for now

May 21, 2020

The SA Reserve Bank is the fastest, easiest way to deploy nuclear-tipped bazookas as the government’s revenue hole gapes open, says head of capital markets research at Intellidex, Peter Attard...

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Economists propose R100bn social bond to fund South Africa’s Covid fight

May 21, 2020

Intellidex, backed by the Covid-19 Economists Group, is proposing that the South African government consider a ‘social bond’ to raise up to R100bn to compensate for funding gaps that have arisen...

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Herbert Smith, Rothschild and Intellidex paint post-Covid future to their clients

May 20, 2020

Consultancy firms remain at the side of their clients in the African mining industry despite the coronavirus pandemic. Herbert Smith, Rothschild and Intellidex paint a post-Covid future to their...

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The latest lockdown regulations will bring some relief – but in the bigger scheme of things, what difference will it make?

May 15, 2020

There are different approaches that governments can take in dealing with Covid-19: either trust people and take them into government confidence or be secretive sucurocrats who don’t even share what...

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Get ready for metro-level lockdowns in South Africa

May 12, 2020

Government is drawing up positive lists of ‘what is allowed to occur’ as opposed to negative lists of ‘what should not occur’. This micromanagement is leading to very slow shifts in what is...

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South Africa is broke, increasing the odds of an IMF bailout

May 12, 2020

Unemployment figures and Eskom results were that sparked calls for an IMF bailout – but there are a lot of mitigating steps that government can still take before that, starting with the budget,...

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How big might bank losses be?

May 7, 2020

Intellidex chairperson Stuart Theobald says banks are under extreme pressure and it is not a stretch to expect a return to the levels of provisions we saw during the financial crisis (4% of their...

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Level 4 lockdown descending into “unworkable confusion”: analyst

May 5, 2020

Those keen to shower praise on Ramaphosa’s leadership given his response to Covid-19 have now strapped him to the mast if or when lockdown goes badly wrong, says Intelldiex’s Peter Attard...

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South Africa fears lockdown is bigger disaster than coronavirus

April 30, 2020

Intellidex estimates that 1.7-million South Africans will lose their livelihoods, and the economy will contract by about 10%. Featured in the UK's Times. 

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How a team of economists teamed up to come up with an economic recovery plan for SA

April 23, 2020

Our business researches and analyses the financial system and capital markets and from our US and bases we saw where SA could possibly be due to covid-19 and how the lockdown would translate into...

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What is Government’s fiscal response to Covid-19 lockdown

April 21, 2020

Intellidex chair Stuart Theobald, Cannon Asset Managers CEO Adrian Saville and Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings talk to Business Day TV about economic recovery steps.

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R750bn to save the economy

April 21, 2020

The stimulus measures that SA has announced to soften the blow of #covid19inSA on the economy are not a tenth of what is required to make an impact, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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Govt considering pandemic responses, including R100 billion social bond

April 21, 2020

While the proposal on the potential sale of a R100bn social impact bond wasn’t solicited by the government, Intellidex made a submission and it is being considered, says Stuart Theobald. Featured in...

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Geuine black empowerment entities could be collateral damage as commission cracks down on fronting

April 17, 2020

Intellidex’s Understanding Empowerment Endowments report is cited in a Daily Maverick article exploring some of the successes of BEE. Intellidex’s research found that 25 BBBEE trusts formed by...

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Government urged to take stimulus route using its entire balance sheet

April 17, 2020

Intellidex chairperson Stuart Theobald presented recommendations to cabinet on Wednesday on the design for the credit guarantee scheme, managed by SARB, to support businesses suffering from the...

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‘Liquidation only option’ as govt denies SAA funding request – experts

April 16, 2020

Government denying SAA further funding means that all options to any form of real continuation of the airline are now blocked. The only option now is liquidation, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of...

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The smooth path out of lockdown

April 16, 2020

Opening-up the economy with certain health protocols is crucial. What we’ve seen in past crises in SA are permanent rises in unemployment and losses in output, which lead to permanent losses in...

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SMMEs in turmoil

April 14, 2020

The lack of flexibility in the SA economy is a key problem prohibiting the ability of SMMEs to bounce back after the crisis has passed. The longer the lockdown, the less likely it is that weak SMMEs...

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South Africa’s army of informal workers face destitution

April 8, 2020

The lockdown of SA, due to Covid-19, has left many in the informal economy, such as salon owners and run eateries, cash strapped, wrote Mmamoletji […]

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WATCH: Peter Attard Montalto on Economics Unbound

April 3, 2020

SARB’s response to the coronavirus has been “minimal” and “okay for now” but markets and investors are waiting for more action as the crisis deepens, says Peter Attard Montalto in his...

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Why Moody’s downgraded SA to junk

April 2, 2020

Previous shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis and Nenegate showed that the lack of structural reforms leave long-lasting scars on the economy, Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto told Business...

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Apocalypse now?

April 2, 2020

Something has to fundamentally break first for the politics to shift to structural reform and perhaps the deep scars left by coronavirus on the economy and a permanent step up in unemployment will be...

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Reaction to Moody’s downgrade of SA

March 31, 2020

Moody’s downgrade of SA is ultimately the result of a lack of progress on turning around growth – that shouldn’t be forgotten as we endure […]

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Impact of coronavirus on emerging markets

March 27, 2020

The impact of the coronavirus on banks’ balance sheets, as they offer repayment relief, can be managed with the right regulatory frameworks – and banks […]

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The Reserve Bank is buying government bonds for corona relief

March 26, 2020

The Reserve Bank buying government bonds for corona relief is a major and necessary crossing of the rubicon, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto on The […]

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SARB cuts rates by 100 basis points in response to COVID-19, is it enough?

March 20, 2020

While a 100 basis-point interest rate cut is going to provide some support for the economy, that support is really going to be marginal,

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SA’s ‘abnormally’ low coronavirus rate will still wreck the economy

March 19, 2020

While SA may end up with an official coronavirus rate which is relatively lower than peer countries, the pandemic may trigger an Eskom “shock” and […]

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SA’s deficit to leapfrog

March 19, 2020

SA hasn’t saved for a rainy day nor has it implemented the right structural reforms to accelerate economic growth – and this does mean a Moody’s downgrade, says Intellidex’s head of capital...

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SA’s GDP growth outlook dims as coronavirus spreads

March 12, 2020

Global airlines are coming under extreme stress due to #coronavirus. This is likely to have a significant impact on #SAA’s existing and even profitable routes, accelerating the need for additional...

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Black economic interest in the banking sector is slipping

March 12, 2020

While the question of ownership in the banking industry captures headlines, another question to ask is whether those patterns of ownership transform the economy, says Stuart Theobald. Featured in...

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Black ownership of banks continues to fall

March 10, 2020

Blacks now represent the majority on banks’ boards, with black members climbing from 43% in 2017 to 51% in 2018, Intellidex’s report on transformation in the banking sector found. Featured in...

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Consumers aren’t reaping the benefits of SARB’s repo rate cuts

March 10, 2020

The increase in banks’ overdraft interest rate reflects their increasing risk aversion, says Intellidex’s head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in IOL .

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Budget review 2020

February 27, 2020

While many expected Tito Mboweni to increase VAT, that was not on the table because of its overall impact, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto on […]

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Cautious optimism for Mboweni’s ‘fascinating Budget’

February 27, 2020

This is a fascinating budget. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni has thrown the kitchen sink at unions and the public sector wage war has started, argues […]

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Old promises turned into new promises — with implementation detail and financing left to Mboweni’s Budget

February 17, 2020

The youth employment initiative announced at last week’s Sona will take 1% or R20bn of the 2021/21 national budget and it’s unclear where that money will come from apart from belt-tightening, says...

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SONA 2020 reactions: Empty promises and impossible dreams

February 14, 2020

Ramaphosa’s Sona scores a high 8/10 for rhetoric, an ‘okay’ 6.5/10 on policy but falls flat on implementation (2/10 at best), says Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard...

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Is Cosatu’s Eskom plan unworkable?

February 11, 2020

The GDPF, IDC and DBSA have finite balance sheets and have to manage their risk. Intellidex’s Stuart Theobald says drawing them in to bail out Eskom is dangerous. Catch the full interview with...

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STUART THEOBALD: Cosatu’s Eskom bailout plan is unworkable and dangerous

February 11, 2020

Cosatu’s  Eskom proposal will spark contagion that spreads the financial problems of SOEs into government development financial institutions such as the GDPF, IDC and DBSA, […]

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Stuart Theobald analyses Old Mutual’s fight with its fired CEO

January 16, 2020

Old Mutual’s share price has dropped by 12% since the dawn of the Peter Moyo saga, however the losses aren’t entirely attributable to this as there are many moving parts to the company’s decline...

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Repo rate predicted to stay unchanged

January 13, 2020

The lack of panic in government outside of Treasury is one of the issues reinforcing South Africa’s low-growth forecasts, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex....

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More of the same as 2020 economic growth outlook expected to flounder

January 6, 2020

Lack of decisiveness is something SA cannot afford for another year, and minimal reform means that the right decisions may well be made only after SA has been pushed over the cliff edge, says...

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4 things South Africans should look out for in 2020 – including more taxes and a decision on SAA

January 6, 2020

Eskom and the public sector wage bill will be key areas of focus right up into the 2020 February budget, which will then be followed by focus on an expected rating cut by Moodys’ at the end of...

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SA’s energy policy – why are we not using more renewable energy?

December 18, 2019

There is a battle of vested interests at play within government and this is one reason why it has missed key opportunities to turn business […]

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High risk of load shedding for the next 18 months

December 18, 2019

Government seems to lack forward momentum on energy policy and hence the risk of load shedding remains high for the next 18 months, says Intellidex’s […]

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Is the reform narrative dying in SA?

December 12, 2019

Reform in SA is taking place too slowly and a key problem is government’s lack of urgency in making the necessary decisions to turn economy […]

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Eskom: Uncertainty is the issue as mines grind to a halt

December 11, 2019

Business sentiment seems to be getting worse with no certainty about when an additional 11.6 GW of new capacity, by 2025, spoken about in the IRP will be procured, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard...

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SAA in business rescue

December 6, 2019

SAA business rescue is effectively a farming out of responsibility and decision-making to an independent party who has to act in the best interest of […]

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SAA cut off to protect other SOEs

December 6, 2019

The public enterprises department seems to be stepping over the legal line by trying to impose terms on SAA’s business rescue, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard […]

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Ailing SAA nose dives into business rescue

December 6, 2019

SAA’s business rescue is politically palatable and comes with an implied hope that SAA can be sustained, but only a third of businesses under business […]

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Eskom CEO – Should he be given the benefit of the doubt?

November 20, 2019

One job of the CEO of an SOE is to fight the highly political battles and there are instances where business will have to back De Ruyter in these conflicts, say head of capital markets research at...

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Can SAA be saved from collapse?

November 20, 2019

Intellidex’s view is that policy should be driven by evidence and it should be based on research on what would lead to the objectives we envision as a country, says Intellidex’s chairman Stuart...

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Eskom board ‘firmly’ behind appointment of new CEO, Numsa says it’s a setback

November 19, 2019

We will give André de Ruyter the benefit of the doubt but there isn’t time to learn on the job as many urgent decisions are required to turn #Eskom around, says Intellidex’s Attard Montalto....

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DA, ANC PLACE FAITH IN NEW ESKOM BOSS DE RUYTER; EFF NOT HAPPY

November 19, 2019

De Ruyter’s appointment as Eskom’s CEO is a surprise and it is unclear if he has the requisite experience considering that Nampak is a different kettle of fish and which has not been clealrly...

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These are the three ways SAA could go bust

November 18, 2019

SAA strike and inability to raise R2bn in working capital means that it will likely default on payments which will trigger demands from creditors that […]

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This is what awaits South Africa if Moody’s cuts credit rating to junk

November 8, 2019

South Africa’s chances of avoiding a downgrade after the February budget are 50:50 and a cut could result in R73bn of outflows, says Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex’s London-based head of...

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Downgrade to junk is looking ever closer

November 5, 2019

Intellidex’s head of capital markets research says that insufficient progress in fiscal consolidation – on the wage bill in particular – means that SA stands a significant chance of being...

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Rand tanks to lowest level in weeks after ‘car crash’ budget

November 1, 2019

A real concern of the MTBPS is that Treasury initially attempted significant expenditure cuts but ran into a brick wall in the form of a […]

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Economists and analysts give a thumbs down to Mboweni’s medium-term budget statement

October 31, 2019

The MTBPS clearly shows that there is strong political resistance against leaping to the R150bn of expenditure cuts needed to start to reach a primary balance and stabilise debt to GDP ratios, says...

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Cutting costs and unbundling: All you need to know about Eskom’s rescue plan

October 30, 2019

The market is marginally disappointed that Eskom’s transmission system operator is not fully spun out and that there were no details on Eskom's debt, but this should not have been a surprise, says...

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Minister Tito Mboweni to assure the market and ratings agencies

October 29, 2019

SA is beyond the point at which government can generate revenue through additional taxes, argues Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Featured in Business Report.

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IRP demand assumptions are ‘far too high’

October 21, 2019

The Integrated Resource Plan repeats the past mistake of overestimating the level of demand for electricity, says head of capital markets research at Intellidex Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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Loadshedding sow doubts on rescue plan, South African growth

October 18, 2019

It’s clear that business and markets have bought into spin narratives about improvements in Eskom’s operations, says head of capital markets research at Intelldiex Peter Attard Montalto. Featured...

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What stringent bailout for SOEs?

October 18, 2019

National Treasury has been too risk-averse over the years while it also lacked understanding – until recently – of the depth of the unsustainability of Eskom and SAA, says Intellidex’s Peter...

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Return of load-shedding hits rand

October 17, 2019

Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto says markets have overestimated the turnaround in Eskom’s operations. The system continues to run with effectively no safety margin . Featured in Herald live.

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Eskom wants more money

October 16, 2019

Despite low demand, Eskom is now loadshedding, which highlights the fact that Eskom has only stabilised operation at a very weak place and not improved, says head of capital markets research at...

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Swings and roundabouts for jobs in banks

October 14, 2019

The future of the banking industry is going to involve fewer branches, more digital engagement with clients and lower costs as the industry grows more competitive, says Intellidex chairperson Stuart...

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Government has just three weeks left to make tough decisions on Eskom, economy

October 7, 2019

Effecting major policy shifts for Eskom will be both a challenging and time-consuming endeavour for government, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research […]

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How South Africa can create another Capitec

October 2, 2019

Customers put their money where they think it will be safe – hence Intellidex, in its submission to Treasury on economic policy, encourages implementation of […]

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Hope After State Capture? A Conversation with Mcebisi Jonas, Trade Envoy to the President of South Africa

October 1, 2019

As combatting state capture continues to be a core theme for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, Invest Africa is delighted to welcome Mcebisi Jonas, now Trade Envoy to the President of South...

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Seven government policies that are likely to have the worst impact on South Africa’s economy

September 18, 2019

Even though government now realises how poorly positioned the economy is, it remains hamstrung in trying to turn things around, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in Business Tech.

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Retirement feature: Future of the PIC & Evolution of the SA retirement industry

September 13, 2019

The mandate of the PIC Commission is not just to make sense of what’s been going on but also to craft a vision of how the PIC should be run in future, says Intellidex’s chairperson Stuart...

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Toughest business job in South Africa up for grabs

September 9, 2019

Treasury’s proposal to sell Eskom’s coal power stations is more of a political baseball bat to end the torpor in government because there would be no buyers, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard...

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[LISTEN] #TheMoneyShow WEF Africa special broadcast

September 6, 2019

Negative sentiment is quite rational because of the lack of change in SA, says Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex’s head of capital markets research. Listen to the full interview with Bruce Whitfield...

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A case for the PIC to bail out ailing state-owned enterprises

September 5, 2019

The PIC can commit to social and corporate governance and social impact investing by bailing out state entities – but only if the sacrifice of financial returns can be justified in terms of the...

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SA taxpayers must demand that civil servant pensions are invested for the greater good – report

September 4, 2019

The PIC can use its influence to improve governance and sustainability at South African companies, which would have spillover public benefits for all, Intellidex argues in its report to the PIC...

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Mboweni’s economic blueprint ‘parks reform tanks’ on govt lawn – economist

August 29, 2019

Treasury’s economic document is going to cause political fallout but its disruptive nature can foster robust, evidence-based policy debates, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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Why Treasury’s ‘surprise’ document on South Africa’s economy is a big deal

August 29, 2019

The language of Treasury’s economic paper is frank, hard hitting and exudes a can-do attitude by simply asking how SA achieve faster growth, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets...

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Tito Mboweni publishes evidence-based plan to fix structure of broken economy

August 28, 2019

Mboweni’s plan to fix the ailing economy is a very calm, thorough, evidence-based document from National Treasury, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Listen...

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CAROL PATON: How to tackle state cuts without losing vital personnel

August 27, 2019

Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto says Treasury could achieve a 2.1% reduction on government spending. Featured in Business Day.

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Ramaphosa signs controversial new debt relief bill into law – here’s what it means for you

August 16, 2019

The new debt relief bill could force losses on the banking sector of about R25bn, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Featured in Business Tech.

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Saving Eskom requires tough decisions – not magical thinking

August 15, 2019

Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto says that low confidence among investors is clearly because of government’s lack of decision making. Clarity is needed on the way forward. Featured in Daily...

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How much more you would have to be taxed to make NHI ‘work’

August 13, 2019

National Health Insurance is unworkable in the economic and fiscal context even though it is sorely needed – it can do harm than good at a macro level, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital...

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The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield

August 8, 2019

Intellidex’s chairman, Stuart Theobald, weighs in on the recent report into the Public Protector’s personal bank account. Listen to the full interview with Bruce Whitfield.

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South Africa is broke, increasing the odds of an IMF bailout

August 7, 2019

SA’s economic woes haven’t reached a point where an IMF bailout is required, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Listen to the full interview with Bruce...

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South Africa looking over the edge of a cliff

August 7, 2019

Government recognises there is a crisis but prioritises other issues while sustainable solutions that address fundamental problems are absent, says Intelleidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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The rand is on the ropes again – and it doesn’t have many punches left to throw

August 6, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, expects SA’s currency to weaken further given that there isn’t much government can do to respond to both global and domestic...

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Executives abandon state companies over indecision

August 5, 2019

As more top executives quit SEOs, Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto says private sector talent is being put off by the micro-management, political balancing and interference from government....

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Is the land reform report a realistic draft for change?

August 2, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, joins CNBC Africa for a discussion on whether the land reform report is a realistic draft for change. Watch the full interview...

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Treasury to increase bond auctions to fund Eskom and tax deficit

August 1, 2019

Moody’s remains reluctant to downgrade SA – which is out of kilter with other ratings agencies – and is unlikely to do so in the next year despite Eskom’s challenges, says Intellidex’s Peter...

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Analysis of Eskom losses with Peter Attard Montalto

July 31, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto, gives an analysis of the losses incurred at Eskom. Watch the analysis on SABC News here.

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Too big to fail? The companies threatening South Africa’s economy

July 30, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto, speaks to Al Jazeera about how embattled parastatals pose a threat to South Africa’s economy. Watch […]

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Eskom: Another expert explains why load shedding “will return in August”

July 30, 2019

The risk of load shedding is still real as operational issues at Eskom were not fixed but were merely put to bed during winter. Those issues will return as summer draws closer, says Intellidex’s...

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Eskom, the biggest threat to SA’s economy, gets an acting leader

July 30, 2019

A joint CEO and chairman for Eskom isn’t a good idea as governance challenges and required oversights are too great – especially if challenges drag on. This is not a sustainable solution even in...

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Too big to fail? The companies threatening South Africa’s economy

July 29, 2019

There’s been massive build-up of financial stress at state-owned enterprises. Some are really right on the edge and require significant amounts of taxpayer support, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard...

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Eskom gets a huge bailout, but where’s the rescue plan?

July 26, 2019

Eskom needs to appoint a restructuring officer and advisors, formulate a plan, get the plan approved and then execute the plan. This is likely to take a year before any unbundling can occur, says...

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Eskom bailout

July 24, 2019

Classic Business with Michael Avery speaks to Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto on the Special Appropriation Bill in relation to Eskom.

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South African Ailing Power Giant Eskom to Get Extra $4.2 Billion

July 23, 2019

The lack of detail on what the Eskom cash injection will be used for or how it will be funded is disappointing, says Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto. In Bloomberg today

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WATCH: Can the rate cut stimulate growth?

July 19, 2019

Business Day TV caught up with Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto to discuss the South African Reserve Bank’s decision on rate cuts. 

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JSE could open higher on Friday on optimism about US rate cuts

July 19, 2019

The interest rate cut will not meaningfully boost economic growth, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Featured in Business Day today.

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Another one bites the dust as André Pillay resigns as Eskom group treasurer

July 16, 2019

Markets have somewhat glossed over the resignation of André Pillay as Eskom group treasurer  given the market’s ‘risk-on’ mood, says Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto in...

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Eskom Gets Rescue Option as PIC Proposes Debt-Equity Swap

July 12, 2019

Should Eskom give preferential treatment to the PIC over other bondholders, it would create huge legal headaches for government, warns Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex’s head of capital markets....

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EFF’s ‘Fascist Populism’ trumped by rare cross-party

July 12, 2019

The intense lobbying over SA’s energy mix is creating “a misleading impression of where the centre of gravity is”, says Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex’s head of capital markets. Featured in...

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Rate cut expected next week

July 11, 2019

There are now more ‘good’ reasons to implement a prime lending rate cut – such as the fall in global yields, Eskom’s tariff hikes and lower oil and petrol prices, says Intellidex’s Peter...

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South Africa weighs new support measures for struggling Eskom

July 5, 2019

Government should split Eskom into generation, transmission and distribution entities, as promised, as a deleveraged Eskom with a monopoly mindset is dangerous, says Intellidex's Peter Attard...

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EFF’s ‘no council vote’ decision could come back to bite it in 2021

July 3, 2019

The EFF’s decision not to vote with the ANC or DA in metros is unlikely to see the immediate collapse of council administrations up until budgets are due, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard...

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Mminele’s Reserve Bank exit fuels talk of move to Absa’s top job

June 28, 2019

Daniel Mminele’s exit as deputy governor of the Reserve Bank is a great loss in terms of institutional knowledge and leadership, says Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard...

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Lower interest rates won’t cut it

June 27, 2019

The drop in the purchasing manager’s index to 45.4 in May from 47.2 in April is consistent with a 5% decline in manufacturing output, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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Clients ‘extremely happy’ with wealth managers – survey

June 27, 2019

Intellidex introduced a new category in its 2019 Top Private Banks and Wealth Managers survey, with Sonia du Plessis from Brenthurst Wealth being named the Top Financial Advisor of the Year. Read more...

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PSG and NFB scoop top honours in wealth survey

June 26, 2019

The big winners in the Intellidex Top Private Banks & Wealth Managers awards were announced last night. Congratulations to all of the winners! Check out the story in Business Day.

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Opposition parties gear up for #SONA2019 debate

June 24, 2019

Creditors and suppliers will be disappointed that Ramaphosa did not mention SAA and the SABC in the Sona as both embattled SOEs also require billions of rand in bailouts, says Intellidex head of...

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You are going to pay for Eskom – Tax increase on the cards

June 24, 2019

Eskom’s bailout is disappointing as free money was offered with no additional pain politically or for the vested interests, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in My Broadband.

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Rand falls after Ramaphosa speech seen lacking details

June 21, 2019

There was a surprising lack of detail on Eskom which will disappoint both the energy industry and markets, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Featured in...

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JSE could open mixed on Friday as Naspers reports

June 21, 2019

Market sentiment is not likely to improve much after Sona until actual implementation begins, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Featured in Business Day

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African Bank moves to stem client exodus, safeguard S.African comeback

June 21, 2019

African Bank should capitalise on its access to clients from its former lending book, says Stuart Theobald, chairman of financial consultancy Intellidex. Featured in Reuters.

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Cyril Ramaphosa expected to shore up business confidence

June 19, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto believes various short- and long-term bailout plans will have gone to last week's Cabinet lekgotla for processing and inclusion within the Sona speech....

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Some green economic shoots in April, but don’t expect Q2 to blossom as confidence remains low

June 14, 2019

The ANC’s political infighting has caused an extremely rapid loss of confidence in the economy which policymakers underestimate, says Peter Attard Montalto, Intellidex’s head of capital markets....

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Here’s why Ramaphoria is now well and truly dead

June 13, 2019

Investors look for some simple bedrocks of countries to invest in – like low, stable inflation emanating from a credible independent central bank, says intellidex head of capital markets Peter...

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SARB independence threats are ‘hand grenade with the pin out’ for SA credibility – analyst

June 12, 2019

The markets seemed to think issues like the SA Reserve Bank and land would be parked – which is not going to be the case, says Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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The one way Ramaphosa could change how he runs his office

June 12, 2019

Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto questions whether those around the president have the ability to deploy political capital to undertake policy formation and then implementation. Featured in...

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Data underlines the woeful state of South Africa’s investment climate

June 11, 2019

There is no investment strike – investment is clearly happening. What is happening though is that the proportion of investment as a share of GDP […]

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ANALYSIS: Tito’s Ace damage control is ‘not enough’ to save SA

June 6, 2019

Markets know Mboweni and Godongwana's views on nationalising the South African reserve Bank, and so their interventions, whilst necessary, are not sufficient says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto....

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QE could cause significant damage if pushed through (2)

June 6, 2019

There is another crowd of people within the ANC, who want access to the Reserve Bank’s control of the financial authority says, Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in...

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The Money Show

June 6, 2019

“There is an alliance between the South African Communist Party and others in the ANC who want access to the central bank,” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto on The Money Show with...

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South African Airways CEO Quits Over Lack of State Support

June 3, 2019

“The resignation letter of SAA’s CEO appears to strongly suggest that the airline is being forced into administration, deliberately or indirectly by government”, says Intellidex head of capital...

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Merged ministries a mixed bag

June 3, 2019

Tito Mboweni’s return to the finance ministry and the retention of Pravin Gordhan as public enterprises minister are important, given the need to provide stability in talks around the reform of...

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4 things to watch with Ramaphosa’s new cabinet

June 3, 2019

Amid the good and bad in the new cabinet, there are a few notable things to watch, especially among the newcomers, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. In Business Tech

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Mboweni’s return a sign of Ramaphosa’s commitment to fiscal policies

June 3, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto says the new cabinet has shrunk only marginally – signalling that a further shrinking reshuffle might occur in a year. Featured in...

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Carbon tax: a misguided call?

May 30, 2019

The new carbon tax is "a bad idea" because government has delayed reforming SA’s energy sector, blocking the shift away from carbon intensity that the tax seeks to encourage, says Intellidex analyst...

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SA’s new cabinet could give JSE a small boost on Thursday

May 30, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto struggles to see real economic reformers, policy wonks and implementers entering cabinet. Featured in Business Day

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ANALYSE THIS: Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto

May 30, 2019

Get to know Intellidex’s head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto through an entertaining question and answer article in this week’s Financial Mail

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The Toughest CEO Job in South Africa Is Open. Who Wants It?

May 28, 2019

“I can’t think of anyone within Eskom who has the political savvy and technical knowledge required of the CEO, or who would want the position,” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto....

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Cyril’s next steps

May 23, 2019

Intellidex’s Attard Montalto is expecting a series of positive "big bang" announcements and events over the coming month that will stoke fresh "Ramaphoria" and broadly keep SA assets on the front...

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Ramaphosa’s new cabinet – here’s what to expect

May 23, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, says that absence of Gigaba, and Mokonyane from Ramaphosa’s mooted new cabinet is largely market positive. Featured in Business...

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Speculation about Cabinet posts obscures SA’s Achilles Heel — Eskom, which has just received another R12.5bn

May 20, 2019

“There is a huge sense of urgency around Eskom and the need for a second iteration bailout…” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. In today’s Daily Maverick 

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South Africa Yields Rise, Eskom’s Fall as Bailout Talk Grows

May 20, 2019

While the government allocated Eskom a R69bn cash injection over the next three years in the February budget, another bailout will probably take place in the second half of this year, says Intellidex...

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What to expect for South Africa after Ramaphosa chooses his new cabinet

May 20, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says that in the short term the land reform process will face many challenges and entrench uncertainty, keeping any possible positives strictly in the...

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The Xolani Gwala Show

May 20, 2019

“There are a lot of things coming from Ramaphosa, but the implementation is crucial”, says Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto on the Xolani Gwala show.

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Is the ANC ready to walk the talk on high youth unemployment, SOEs?

May 16, 2019

Head of capital markets research at Intellidex Peter Attard Montalto joins CNBC Africa’s Karabo Letlhatlha to discuss South Africa’s increased unemployment rate

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South African 2019 election: the predictions vs the results

May 13, 2019

Among the pre-election polls, the Intellidex poll emerged as being the most accurate. The poll was a representation on the thoughts of economists, investors and other players in the market. Featured...

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IEC calls urgent audit into double voting claims and complaints in the interest of poll integrity

May 10, 2019

Projections at this stage by Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto have the ANC nationally at 57.5%, the DA at 20.44% and the EFF at 9.27%. Read more in today’s Daily Maverick. 

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WATCH: How SA’s trading partners have reacted to the general election

May 10, 2019

Intellidex’s head of capital markets, Peter Attard Montalto, joined Business Day TV from London to share his views on the national election.

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Ramaphosa’s reforms not certain

May 10, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto cautioned that, even with an “okay” win for the ANC, the link between the results and the post-election reform agenda and political environment is weak....

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South Africa’s ANC poised for election victory but support ebbs

May 10, 2019

“The ANC will be elected with a record low of 27% of the eligible population backing them, compared with 47% in1999,” says  Intellidex analyst Peter […]

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Tracking the Count

May 9, 2019

Daily Maverick and Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto are joining up to track results as they unfold

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This is the election outcome that may trigger a rally in the rand and SA shares

May 6, 2019

The market sees a 75.7% probability of Cyril Ramaphosa remaining in office immediately after the election, despite factional in-fighting within the ANC. Read more on […]

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Ramaphosa expected to ‘just miss’ mandate threshold

May 6, 2019

Most market participants expect Tito Mboweni to remain as finance minister after the elections, says Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto. Read the full article in Moneyweb

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How the parties shape up come 8 May, province by province

May 6, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto forecasts a range of 48% to 52% for the ANC; 29% to 33% for the DA; and 13% to 16% for the EFF. Featured in Daily Maverick

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So where is the money from China? Still coming, says the DPE

May 6, 2019

“There is still a large R250bn hole in Eskom’s balance sheet requiring some further bailout in order to ensure a going concern,” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard-Montalto. In today’s Daily...

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Markets are backing a big ANC win

May 5, 2019

Intellidex’s latest market poll shows that there is only about one-third chance of reform to boost economic growth after the election, says Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto....

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A snapshot of SA days before #Elections2019

May 5, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says the ANC may hang on to Gauteng or rely on a coalition with the EFF. Read more on Independent Online 

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Intellidex market research forecasts ANC will win with 57% of votes

May 3, 2019

Investment decision makers believe there is only a one-third chance of growth-boosting reform after the elections.  More on the Intellidex poll in Engineering News

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The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield

May 3, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto speaks to Bruce Whitfield on the findings of the Intellidex’s election poll of the investment community.

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New election poll shows how investors think the 2019 election will go

May 3, 2019

A new poll of investment decision makers by research group Intellidex lays out what the market’s expectations are for this week’s election. Featured in Business Tech

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Robustness of private sector lures policymakers into complacency over Eskom

April 29, 2019

More productive panic is needed on Eskom, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in his Business Day column

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POWER Business

April 29, 2019

Intellidex financial analyst Phibion Makuwerere speaks to Power FM’s Ron Derby on Pick n Pay’s best performance in a decade. Tune in here 

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72 hours in late March: When Eskom pushed South Africa to the edge of financial collapse

April 25, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto raises concerns that information around the Eskom emergency financial allocation is “buried in Parliament…and not communicated openly with Eskom...

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Maria Ramos to lead Eskom unbundling. Or not. But definitely maybe

April 24, 2019

Maria Ramos’ track record makes her stand out to fill the position as Eskom Chief Reorganisation Officer, says Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald. Listen to more on The Money Show.

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STUART THEOBOLD: Be wary of the government letting the debt-relief genie out of the bottle

April 15, 2019

“SA does have a consumer debt problem. But what we need are interventions that drive lenders into providing healthy forms of debt,” says Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald. Read more in his...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Why Reserve Bank policy is still a cut above alternative suggestions

April 8, 2019

If the market spent half as much time fretting about education or health policy settings as it does for monetary policy settings, SA could well be in quite a different place, says Intellidex head of...

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Moody’s Warns of Risks to South Africa Debt Ratings

April 3, 2019

Moody’s “seems to set a high bar for a future downgrade given that it already bakes in weaker growth forecasts and bearish fiscal estimates”, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto....

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SA law firm plans class action against Eskom over load shedding

April 3, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, tells Fin24 that SA probably lost R1bn a day as a result of load shedding. Read more here

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Moody’s reprieve an opportunity for SA

April 1, 2019

Intellidex’s Montalto says the dagger is still hanging over the economy with no new sense of how close to the edge things are after Moody’s failed to release its report on SA. Read more in in...

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STUART THEOBALD: Something is rotten in corporate SA as checks and balances are eroded

April 1, 2019

Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald interrogates the rotten state of corporate SA. Featured in his Business Day column out today

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Moody’s holds off on ratings announcement on SA’s creditworthiness

March 30, 2019

Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto says the failure to release its report on SA has denied SA its ‘cathartic moment’ of actually knowing Moody’s opinion. More in Times Live

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Moody’s stays mum on SA status

March 30, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, says the failure to act by Moody’s will likely be marginally bad for sentiment in South Africa. Featured in Mail & Guardian

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WATCH: The way a global slowdown and low business morale hamper SA

March 29, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, analyses the latest interest rate decision on Business Day TV. Watch the full interview here.

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PETER BRUCE: Bring Brian Dames back to run Eskom

March 28, 2019

Peter Bruce quotes “arguably the best analyst of the SA political economy” Peter Attard Montalto in lamenting the failure of hope at Eskom. More in today’s Business Day

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Classic Business

March 28, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto speaks to Michael Avery on Moody’s call on SA’s sovereign rating and the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decision. Listen […]

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Intellidex reviews SA MPC meeting, Moody’s ratings expectations

March 27, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, discusses the effects of the Moody’s ratings on SA. Watch the full interview on CNBC Africa

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Moody’s preview: Is SA headed for junk?

March 27, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto provides insights to Moneyweb’s Nompu Siziba on what the country can expect from the Moody’s announcement on Friday. Listen to the full interview here

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Eskom’s nine circles of hell, and election politics

March 27, 2019

Eskom load shedding has not triggered greater urgency on national energy policy, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured in today’s Daily Maverick

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South Africa faces two big economic decisions this week

March 25, 2019

According to Intellidex’s Peter Attard Montalto, Moody’s has remained unjustifiably optimistic about South Africa for too long and appears to be taking whatever the government says and promises at...

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Economists Split on S. Africa Avoiding Moody’s Negative Cut

March 25, 2019

Moody’s could reduce its forecast for economic growth and raise its expectations for the fiscal deficit implications, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. More...

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Prospects brighter as Eskom stops load-shedding for week ahead

March 24, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital Markets Research at Intellidex, says "The coming week should see only low stages of load-shedding and possibly only at the end of the week." In Business Day 

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Load shedding could continue to August: analyst

March 22, 2019

According to Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto government’s response (or lack thereof) to the Eskom crisis is telling. Featured in Business Tech

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Eskom timing could not be worse as Moody’s review looms

March 20, 2019

ntellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says while Moody’s has given South Africa the “extreme benefit of the doubt” in the past, an outlook change to negative is very likely – based on the...

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STUART THEOBALD: Bright spots in performance, but local banks need an economic turnaround

March 18, 2019

Bank results show customers are not particularly distressed with credit loss ratios surprisingly benign given the tough economy, says Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald in his Business Day column. 

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Zuma-era officials feature on ANC election list

March 16, 2019

Ramaphosa’s strategy is to turn a blind eye to state capture when it comes to the election list, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. Featured […]

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Black bank ownership drops as empowerment deals mature

March 12, 2019

Read some of the findings of the 2019 Transformation in Banking report, which was commissioned by the Banking Association of South Africa (Basa) and compiled by Intellidex. Featured in Money Web.

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Black junior managers in banks rising

March 12, 2019

The 2019 Transformation in Banking Report produced by Intellidex is covered in today’s Business Report. 

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Transformation in the banking sector report

March 12, 2019

Intellidex was commissioned by the Banking Association South Africa to research the level of transformation in the banking sector. Read the full transformation report here. 

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Why visa policy is so important to SA’s growth prospects

March 11, 2019

Visas are important precisely because they are so simple to fix yet the lack of action is incredibly frustrating. Read more from Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in his Business Day column. 

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Tariff increase granted to Eskom adds to inflationary pressures

March 10, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex, says Eskom tariffs hike will add upside risks in the first year to consumer inflation. Featured in Business Report.

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Why the ANC is so desperate to nationalise the Reserve Bank

March 8, 2019

According to Intellidex analyst, Peter Attard Montalto, it is the threat of interference with SARB which sent the rand crashing to its weakest point since the start of the year. Read more in today’s...

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The Money Show

March 8, 2019

Bruce Whitfield explores the idea of nationalising the Reserve Bank with Intellidex chairman Dr Stuart Theobald on The Money Show.

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These are the South Africans that could have their debt written off in 2019

March 7, 2019

National Credit Amendment Bill could force losses of about R25bn for local banks if implemented, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. More in Business Tech.

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STUART THEOBALD: Odds are stacked against new banks

March 4, 2019

Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald discusses the challenges facing SA’s new banks in his Business Day column today.

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SA’s outlook for green energy getting ‘better and better’

February 28, 2019

Government’s renewed enthusiasm for green power needs to translate swiftly into action by finalising energy policy and seeking bids to build new plants, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard...

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PETER ATTARD MONTALTO: Budget showed how to muffle elephants and exploit a crisis

February 25, 2019

Budget post mortem by Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto, in today’s Business Day column. 

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Economics Unbound

February 22, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto gives global perspective on SA's SOEs. Featured in SABC, watch the clip here .

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Treasury has just set a very dangerous precedent

February 21, 2019

We see Moody’s on course to cut the outlook in March but this is far from a certainty. More in Business Tech today

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Mboweni’s The Eskom Job: The devil lives in the details

February 21, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto said: “National Treasury managed to squeeze through public sector wage cuts and other trimmings … partly to fund the Eskom equity injections.” In Daily...

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Was that Tito Mboweni’s last budget?

February 21, 2019

Intellidex strategist Peter Attard Montalto says the budget office is understaffed and there is a thin layer of top staff who are holding the institution together. Read more in today’s Financial...

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Budget: It just keeps getting harder to balance state books

February 18, 2019

Markets will be significantly disappointed if only the form or policy position on an Eskom plan is announced in the Budget, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex....

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Budget 2019: Expect a harsh reality check amid Eskom crises and strained public finances

February 18, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto notes: “There are no details of a plan for Eskom to be able to judge as credible and there won’t be any before or at the Budget.” More in today’s Daily...

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SA likely lost R1bn per load shedding stage per day – analyst

February 18, 2019

At a "guesstimate", SA’s gross domestic product has likely lost around R1bn a load-shedding stage each day, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto. In Fin 24

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Eskom bailout key for Budget 2019, but what about other SOEs?

February 15, 2019

The market is over-estimating the room for optimism about Tito Mboweni's upcoming Budget, reckons analyst Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. In today’s Fin 24.

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R100 billion Eskom debt transfer could happen: analyst

February 15, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says that the ‘hole’ in Eskom’s books is between R250bn and R300bn (without counting the unbundling costs). Read the full article in Business Tech.

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How can South Africa’s struggling power utility Eskom turn the lights back on?

February 14, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says plan to separate Eskom into three entities but keep them under one holding company means the incentive issues and monopoly mindset will remain. Featured...

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The best and worst case scenario for property prices after the May election

February 11, 2019

South Africa faces five scenarios post-election, ranging from extremely good to extremely bad, depending on the results, says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in Business […]

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Details, Promises, Thuma Mina 2.0 – an election speech designed to lift SA’s spirits

February 8, 2019

Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says moving South Africa to 50th place from 82nd in the World Bank’s annual Doing Business Report “is a huge ask”. Featured in Daily Maverick. 

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The 2019 SONA issues that have people worried

February 8, 2019

A mindset change is needed in Eskom and it’s not clear if three independent companies achieves this, argues Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in Business Tech. 

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The Eskom break-up explained: What we know so far

February 8, 2019

Ramaphosa's announcements on Eskom were "strong" but lacked specifics, says Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex. Read more in Fin24 today. 

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Ramaphosa Unveils Rescue Plan for South Africa Power Utility

February 8, 2019

“The risk is very little will change with an Eskom split within the Eskom Holdings umbrella”, says Peter Attard Montalto, the London-based head of capital markets research at Intellidex. In...

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Busa gives Ramaphosa’s address the thumbs up

February 8, 2019

High on hope, long on promises and in full election mode, is how Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto describes Ramaphosa’s speech in in today’s Business

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British bank Standard Chartered illegally tried to manipulate the rand

February 5, 2019

“It’s not at all clear that any of this activity happened in South Africa,” says Intellidex chairman Stuart Theobald on the Standard Chartered Bank New York rand manipulation case. More on Bruce...

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The Investors’ Memo: Anatomy of self-inflicted damage

February 5, 2019

“It’s clearly election season when a sensible unsigned discussion memo can generate so much anti-colonialist political backlash,” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in Daily Maverick....

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What Brexit means for SA

January 31, 2019

Intellidex's Peter Attard Montalto believes a hard Brexit might work in SA’s favour. Read more in today’s Financial Mail.

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Debt write-off plan could cost South African banks R25 billion: analyst

January 25, 2019

The debt-write off plan could cost banks billions says Intellidex’s Attard Montalto in Business Tech .

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Explained: the ANC’s economic policy pitfalls

January 24, 2019

“The ANC’s general policy mindset is not changing,” says Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto in Financial Mail today. 

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South Africa economic growth outlook: risks still remain

January 18, 2019

Rate hike still to come this year says Intellidex's Attard Montalto in Business Tech.

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Warning: SA economic turbulence ahead in 2019

January 17, 2019

Intellidex's Attard Montalto sceptical over 'Ramaphoria round two' in Business Day today. 

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The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield – 702

January 15, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto discusses on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield, how the ANC manifesto is driven by different factional groupings in the party and...

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Rand reacts badly to ANC manifesto

January 14, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto head of capital markets research at Intellidex is quoted in “Rand reacts badly to ANC manifesto” in Business Day.

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ANC says central bank should broaden economic focus

January 14, 2019

Peter Attard Montalto head of capital markets research at Intellidex in Reuters' “ANC says central bank should broaden economic focus”.

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ANC still eyeing pension assets

January 14, 2019

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in “ANC still eyeing pension assets” by Moneyweb.

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ENERGY DEPT SAYS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF FUEL PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP

December 28, 2018

Peter Attard Montalto head of capital markets research at Intellidex quoted in Eyewitness Newsabout his views on the clean-up of SOEs.

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Fiscal risk, SOE panic and the time Ramaphoria died: An analyst’s post-mortem on 2018

December 26, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto spoke to Fin24 about “An analyst's post-mortem on 2018”.

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SA’s economic year that was: Peter Attard Montalto

December 21, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto discusses “SA's economic year that was” on SABC News.

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WATCH: 2019 outlook for emerging markets

December 21, 2018

Head of capital research at Intellidex, Peter Attard Montalto, spoke to Business Day TV about the 2019 outlook for emerging markets .

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2018- a tough economic year: Peter Attard Montalto

December 17, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto comments on SABC News' "2018- a tough economic year"

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[Exclusive interview] President Cyril Ramaphosa opens up to Xolani Gwala

December 13, 2018

Peter Attard Montalto head of Capital Markets at Intellidex gets name checked for his views on ratings risk during  702 interview with the President.

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Is SA headed for a rates hike?

December 12, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Financial Mail on the South African Reserve Bank possible interest rate increase.

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The politics of land expropriation without compensation in the ANC constitutional review proposals

December 12, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Daily Maverick after releasing a major report on Land Reform.

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After more than a decade of capture, Eskom may finally succeed in breaking the public purse

December 12, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Daily Maverick on whether there is a politically feasible plan at this stage regarding Eskom. 

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South Africa’s Key Economic and Political Risk Events in 2019

December 9, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Bloomberg regarding the 2019 budget presentation in February.

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Eskom’s debt, a monster lurking in the dark

December 6, 2018

Peter Attard Montalto head of capital markets research at Intellidex is quoted by CNBC Africa on Eskom's debt. 

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Rand slides on land vote

December 5, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets research Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Business Day about the GDP after parliament voted in favour of amending the constitution. 

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ETF Investor

December 5, 2018

Check out the week's episode of #ETFinvestor on BusinessDayTV hosted by  Nerina Visser and Simon Brown with the week's guest MayoTwala,  Editor of Intellidex's savetaxfree.co.za . 

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SARB rate hike draws investor criticism

November 24, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Fin24 as SARB rate hike draws investor criticism

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Investors note political progress but wonder if the economy can catch up

November 22, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Business Day in the SA economy catching up. 

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How SA’s politicians broke land reform

November 22, 2018

Peter Attard Montalto Intellidex head of capital markets quoted in Financial Mail about How SA’s politicians broke land reform

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Analysts divided ahead of Thursday’s Reserve Bank rate decision

November 21, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto quoted in Fin24 ahead of Thursday's Reserve Bank rate decision.

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IMF warning to SA

November 19, 2018

Intellidex head of capital markets Peter Attard Montalto discusses IMF warning to SA on eNCA. 

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